Millwall – Brentford: Sunny Derby with Solid Defences

On Saturday Millwall host Brentford at The Den, a top half London derby that could be decisive for the play-off spots come May.

The 5 most recent games between the two teams have seen an average of 2.20 goals scored (under 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 games) and the 3 most recent games between the two teams at The Den have seen an average of 1.33 goals scored (under 2.5 goals in 3 of 3 games). The corresponding game last season ended 1-0.

Don't miss the Betting Tip for Monday: Liverpool - Arsenal: Reds to Ruin Rusty Rampart as well as other predictions in my spreadsheet English Football!

Millwall

The Lions enjoyed a strong second half of the season under Gary Rowett and finished in 8:th place, just 2 points short of a play-off spot.

Statistics

Only 6 teams conceded fewer shots at home than Millwall in the Championship last season, Millwall conceding on average 9.96 shots per game.
Only 8 teams conceded fewer shots on target at home than Millwall last season, Millwall conceding on average 3.39 shots per game.
When facing top 6 teams at The Den last season, Millwall conceded on average 3.67 shots on target per game which is below the league average of 4.23 shots on target per game.
The defensive solidity made an impact in the goals column as well. When facing top 6 teams at home, the South East London outfit had a low total goals average:

Brentford

The Bees had several shots at securing a Premier League spot in the final stages of last season but in the end, Brentford finished in 3rd place and lost to Fulham in the play-offs final. Disappointing for sure, but Thomas Frank steered the club to yet another very strong season.

Statistics

No other team conceded fewer shots on the road than Brentford in the Championship last season, Brentford conceding on average 8.96 shots per game.
No other team conceded fewer shots on target on the road than Brentford last season, Brentford conceding on average 3.09 shots per game.
When facing top half teams away from Griffin Park last season, Brentford conceded on average 3.64 shots on target per game which is below the league average of 4.60 shots on target per game.
When facing top half teams on the road, the West London club also had a low total goals average:

Check out the Championship table, upcoming fixtures and lots of other stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Millwall conceded comparatively few shots on target last season and put on show a low total goals average when facing top 6 teams at home.
Brentord also conceded few shots on target last season and manifested a low total goals average when facing top half teams on the road.
The 3 most recent games between the two teams at The Den have seen an average of 1.33 goals scored (under 2.5 goals in 3 of 3 games). The corresponding game last season ended 1-0.
Betting Tip: Under 2.25 Goals.
Stake at 5/10 units.

Learn more about what a unit is.

Check out more odds on Millwall - Brentford here!