Crystal Palace - Southampton: Stats in favour of Saints

On Saturday, Southampton face Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. The home team suffer from a handful of injuries while the fit visitors had a great performance record against bottom half teams last season. I believe there's some value to be found in backing the south coast team.

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Crystal Palace

The Eagles finished in 14:th place last season, 9 points above the relegation zone. Roy Hodgson's team ended the season on a terrible run, picking up just 1 point from the last 8 games.
Here and now, Crystal Palace miss a handful of players to injuries, including first-choice central defenders Gary Cahill and James Tomkins and also left back Patrick van Aanholt.

Statistics

Only Sheffield United created fewer shots and shots on target than Crystal Palace last season and only relegated Norwich scored fewer goals than Crystal Palace last season.
Defensive wise things look slightly better but still rather bleak. The South London club was among the 8 teams conceding the most shots and shots on target last season.

When facing teams from the bottom half of the table last season, Crystal Palace had one of the worst shots on target differences in the league:

When facing bottom half teams at home last season, Crystal Palace had the fourth worst shots on target difference in the league.

Southampton

The Saints finished in 11:th place last season but performed better as the season went by and in the final stages the Hampshire detachments points-per-game were only bettered by Liverpool, Tottenham, Manchester United and Manchester City.

Statistics

Only 5 teams created more shots and shots on target than Southampton last season and only 8 teams conceded fewer shots and shots on target than Ralph Hasenhüttl's men.

When facing teams from the bottom half of the table last season, Southampton had one of the best shots on target differences in the league:

When facing bottom 6 teams last season, Southampton had the third best shots on target difference in the league.

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Conclusion & Betting Tips

Crystal Palace had a poor performance record overall last season and miss several key defensive players on Saturday.
Southampton had a really good performance record last season, including away games to bottom half teams.
For what it's worth: Southampton won the three most recent games between the two teams at Selhurst Park 0-1, 0-2 and 0-2.
My Betting Tip is: Southampton -0.25 (Asian Handicap).
Stake at 5/10 units.

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