Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal: Some value to be found in the under markets

Brighton & Hove Albion host Arsenal at the Amex Stadium on Saturday.
The Seagulls hoover at 15th place, just 2 points above the drop zone while the Gunners occupy 9th spot, 5 points adrift a Europa League spot. I believe that the odds market slightly overestimate the prospect of goals in this game.

Also, have a look at the betting tip for the game on Wednesday evening: Newcastle United - Sheffield United, and check out my complete spreadsheet for English Football.

Statistics

It's difficult to tell what impact such an disruption as the Covid-19 lockdown might have on football, but there are a few findings from the restart of the German Bundesliga that might have some application on the restart of the Premier League as well:

Before the break, there was on average 3.25 goals scored per game in the Bundesliga.
After the break, there has been on average 3.02 goals scored per game in the Bundesliga.

Before the break, there was on average 1.37 goals scored in the first half per game in the Bundesliga.
After the break, there has been on average 1.16 goals scored in the first half per game.

Brighton & Hove Albion

Looking at the season so far, Brighton create around the league average of shots and shots on target in the Premier League, Brighton creating on average 12.97 shots and 4.14 shots on target per game.
Brighton also concede around the league average of shots and shots on target in the Premier League, Brighton conceding on average 12.38 shots and 4.48 shots on target per game.

There’s been on average 2.29 goals scored in Brighton's home games this season, 79% of the home games adding up less than 2.50 goals.
There’s been on average 0.72 goals scored in the 1st half of Brighton's home games this season, 79% of the home games adding up 0 or 1 goal at half time.

Arsenal

Looking at the season so far, Arsenal create slightly below the league average of shots and shots on target in the Premier League, Arsenal creating on average 11.29 shots and 3.89 shots on target per game.
Arsenal concede slightly above the league average of shots and shots on target in the Premier League, Arsenal conceding on average 14.86 shots and 5.00 shots on target per game.

There’s been on average 2.31 goals scored in Arsenal's away games this season, 62% of the away games adding up less than 2.50 goals.
There’s been on average 0.54 goals scored in the 1st half of Arsenal's away games this season, 85% of the away games adding up 0 or 1 goal at half time.

Check out more Premier League stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Quite often, both teams are involved in low scoring games. Especially the first half of Brighton's home games and Arsenal's away games tend to be rather low scoring.
Betting Tip: Under 2.5 Goals.
Stake at 2.5/10 units.
Betting Tip: Under 1 Goals (1st Half).
Stake at 2.5/10 units.

Learn more about what a unit is.

Check out more odds on Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal here!