Today Dutch First Division football is back again after the winter break. One game that stands out for me is a derby, bottom placed FC Dordrecht will host number 7 Excelsior.
FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht is a team in trouble. During the first half of the season their performance was really poor with only 11 points in 20 matches, scoring just 25 times and conceding a massive 51 goals in the process. One reason for this was the injury of their captain and best (central) defender Daniel Breedijk. He only played the first 4 games (which yielded just 1 point and 13 goals against them) and then sustained a serious knee injury. So, what can we expect from them today?
Simply put, more of the same. Dordrechts squad underwent some serious changes in the last week. Anass Achahbar, arguably Dordrechts best attacker, had his contract terminated. Pedro Marques, their topscorer and only other striker, was demoted back to their reserves. This leaves Dordrecht without a striker for tonights game against Excelsior. In Dordrechts last practice game against TOP Oss (1-0 loss) a youth player named Dennis Haazer filled in this vacant spot, he is expected to make his debut tonight. Dordrecht also got rid of three underperforming Feyenoord loanies (ten Hove, Lewis and van Leeuwen) and loaned a new goalkeeper from ADO Den Haag, Mike Havekotte. A necessary addition, as the three previous goalkeepers (who all played games this season, showing the extent of the problem) did not reach a sufficient level of play. Daniel Breedijk is back from his injury again, he played 45 minutes against TOP Oss last monday. He will most likely be in the starting XI. However, his level of fitness remains to be seen as those 45 minutes were his only in over 4 months. Due to an injury Dordrechts starting right back Gronsveld is out, just like their substitute winger Amadin.
Excelsior
Rotterdam based Excelsior is having a better season. However, if they want to promote to the Eredivisie they have to step their game up. With their attractive and attacking focussed football they score a lot of goals, they are the 4th best scoring team in the league. Their main problem is their defence, they have conceded 36 times ranking them 13th in goals against. This is too many if they want to fight for promotion places. Recent trends show signs of improvement however, in their last 5 away games before the winter break they have conceded just 4 times.
In terms of fitness Excelsior have an almost fully fit squad at their proposal. Zwarts, one of their starting strikers, is questionable however. He did not play during Excelsiors final practice game against Helmond Sport (1-2 away win). In this game Fortes, a starting midfielder, was substituted after 30 minutes with an injury. It's unsure whether he will start or not. Even though both are important players, them starting won't be the difference tonight.
Conclusion & tips
Given the circumstances FC Dordrecht will be no match for Excelsior, who have a better player in almost every position on the pitch. This will be a one way game resulting in a comfortable Excelsior win. Due to Dordrechts personal problems in offence I'm expecting them not to score at all. I'll be playing it safe with my main bet: FC Dordrecht under 1.5 team goals & Excelsior to score @ 1.92 which is worth a 10/10 Maxbet. I'll also be taking two riskier bets: Excelsior to win to nil @ 4.9, worth 4/10 units and Excelsior -1.0 AH @ 2.55 worth 5/10 units.
