The evening game in the fourth tier of English football on Saturday is the bottom of the table clash between Colchester United and Walsall at Colchester Community Stadium aka JobServe Community Stadium.
I believe that the odds market to some extent overestimate the prospect of the hosts scoring goals here.
The U's have a couple of nervy games left closing the season, Colchester currently hovering in 22nd place just 3 points above the drop zone.
Only four teams have created fewer shots in League Two than Colchester so far this season, Colchester creating on average 9.76 shots per game.
Only Southend United and Grimsby Town have created fewer shots on target in League Two than Colchester so far this season, the Essex club creating on average 2.93 shots on target per game.
Looking at the four most recent games, the numbers look even worse:
In the four most recent league games Colchester have created on average 2.00 shots on target per game - the second worst attacking numbers in League Two in recent weeks.
The Saddlers have caught a late wind under new head coach Brian Dutton. Walsall have picked up a total of 9 points from the five most recent games, propelling them to safety and a 12-point cushion to the drop zone. Walsall have only conceded 2 goals in the five most recent games, keeping a clean sheet in 3 of those games.
Walsall have conceded above the league average of shots and shots on target so far this season, Walsall conceding on average 11.68 shots and 3.85 shots on target per game.
However, looking at the four most recent league games the numbers look much improved:
In the four most recent league games the West Midlands outfit have conceded on average 2.00 shots on target per game - the second best defensive numbers in League Two right now.
Walsall also have one of the best save percentages in the league, Liam Roberts and Jack Rose saving some 70% of the faced shots on target.
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Colchester is one of the teams creating the fewest shots on target so far this season, Colchester also put on show the second worst attacking numbers in League Two in recent weeks.
Walsall have been looking more and more solid under head coach Brian Dutton, displaying one of the best defensive numbers in League Two in recent weeks.
Betting Tip: Total Goals by Colchester United: Under 0.5.
Stake at 5/10 units.