On Saturday, Nottingham Forest host Blackburn Rovers at City Ground.
The home team have indeed scored 5 goals in the 5 most recent games, but that includes 3 goals against a leaky bottom-of-the-table Wycombe Wanderers and an own goal by Coventry City.
The visitors have conceded 5 goals in the five most recent games but that's down to bad luck for most part.
The underlying numbers tell a different story and I do believe that the odds for Nottingham Forest scoring goals are a bit too high.
The West Bridgford club have their work cut out for them in the relegation struggle, Chris Hughton’s team scoring a mere 0.83 goals per game so far this season.
Only Sheffield Wednesday, Stoke City and Birmingham City have created fewer shots on target than Forest so far this season, Forest creating on average 2.87 shots on target per game.
Looking at the four most recent league games specifically, Forest have created on average 2.50 shots on target per game which is below Forest's numbers for the season so far and also below the league average during the same period of time. In fact, only Bristol City and Stoke City display slightly worse attacking numbers than Forest in recent weeks.
The Blue and Whites have picked up 6 points from the 5 most recent games, conceding 5 goals in the three most recent games.
Looking at the four most recent league games specifically, the shots data tell a more positive story for the Lancashire side: Blackburn have conceded on average 2.25 shots on target per game - the best defensive numbers in the league in recent weeks.
Only 5 teams have conceded fewer shots on target than Blackburn so far this season, Tony Mowbray's men conceding on average 3.28 shots on target per game.
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Only 3 teams have created fewer shots on target than Forest this season. The attacking output look particularly bleak in the last couple of games.
No other team have conceded fewer shots on target than Blackburn in recent weeks.
Betting Tip: Total Goals by Nottingham Forest: Under 0.5.
Stake at 5/10 units.