Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz - Solid Hosts to Restrain Timid Visitors

On Saturday 13 February, Bayer Leverkusen host FSV Mainz at BayArena.
I believe the odds market to some extent overestimate the prospect of the visitors scoring goals.

Bayer Leverkusen

Die Werkself have lost some pace in recent weeks but the schedule has been tough, including games against top 6 rivals Borussia Dortmund, VfL Wolfsburg and RB Leipzig. Nevertheless, Bayer Leverkusen is defending 5th place and have looked solid enough at the back despite conceding 1,00 goals per game in the five most recent games.

Only RB Leipzig have conceded fewer shots than Bayer Leverkusen so far this season, Bayer Leverkusen conceding on average 8.83 shots per game.
No other team have conceded fewer shots on target than Bayer Leverkusen so far this season, Bayer Leverkusen conceding on average 2.72 shots per game.
Looking at the four most recent games specifically, the North Rhine-Westphalia side have conceded on average 2.50 shots on target per game which is better defensive numbers than Bayer Leverkusen's numbers for the season so far and also second only to Eintracht Frankfurt in recent weeks.

FSV Mainz

The 05ers are really struggling this time around and sit in 17th place, 7 points adrift safe ground.

Only 4 teams have created fewer shots than FSV Mainz so far this season, FSV Mainz creating on average 10.44 shots per game.
Only Arminia Bielefeld and FC Cologne have created fewer shots on target than FSV Mainz so far this season, FSV Mainz creating on average 3.22 shots per game.
Looking at the four most recent games specifically, the Rhineland-Palatinate outfit have created on average 1.75 shots on target per game which is worse attacking numbers than FSV Mainz's numbers for the season so far and also the worst attacking numbers in Bundesliga in recent weeks.

Check out more Bundesliga stats here!

Conclusion, Prediction & Betting Tips

No other team have conceded fewer shots on target than Bayer Leverkusen so far this season; in recent weeks Bayer Leverkusen have conceded even fewer shots on target than usual.
Only two teams have created fewer shots on target than FSV Mainz so far this season; in the last couple of weeks FSV Mainz have created even fewer shots on target than usual.
Betting Tip: Total Goals by FSV Mainz: Under 0.5.
Stake at 5/10 units.

Learn more about what a unit is.

Check out more odds on Bayer Leverkusen - FSV Mainz here!