Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots: Low and slow

Stoped in their tracks

New England had a very solid run recently. They won 4 out of 5 games, that allowed them to even their record to 6-6 and get them back into the playoff run. Last week's game was a do or die for them and they failed miserably at LA Rams, losing that game 24-3. Once again, their biggest weakness was their pass offense. With Cam Newton under center, they are simply unable to play from behind and chase the result. It's not all Newton's fault, because he's not getting a lot of help from the supporting cast.

They have to lean heavily on their running game, which makes them pretty predictable. Another issue this week is the injury of Damien Harris. Rookie was their best early down back this season, but he was knocked out of the Rams game late and failed to recover from that injury in time to suit up in Miami. Sony Michel is not a bad backup option, at all, but it seems like the Patriots are not getting the same push up front in the running game by their OL. This is a position group that they leaned on heavily in previous seasons, but it's simply not performing that well this year.

Quick turnaround

I probably wrote already about how impressed I am with Miami and their coach Brian Flores. He's a product of Bill Belichick's coaching tree and it showed immediately that they are sharing that no-nonsense mentality, when it comes to running a team. Although the Dolphins were not rich with talent, they completely dismissed the option of tanking the season for higher picks, but instead opted for changing the culture of the franchise and showing that losing is not acceptable.

And they are sowing the results of that approach already this year. This team still has a bunch of holes in the roster, but they are 8-5, thanks to being disciplined, playing hard and being a team. Tua Tagoviloa so far hasn't wow-ed anybody, but he didn't need to. He was not asked to carry the team on his back, because they are doing really well in other phases of the games, especially defense, where they're forcing turnovers, scoring points and getting their offense in favorable situations.

Dolphins vs Patriots betting tips

These two teams met in the opening week, when Patriots won 21-11. I'm expecting a similar score in this one, but probably the other way around. I just can't see the Patriots getting enough out of their pass offense to get themselves in a  position to win this game. I think they are aware of it as well and will construct a game plan that is based heavily on their running game. They just can't put themselves in a situation where they'll be forced to go through the air, because it could end up ugly for them. Xavien Howard is having an All-Pro year with 9 interceptions and the rest of the pass defense is playing pretty good as well.

I don't expect many explosive plays from Miami's offense either. As I said, with Tua under center, they have played very under control so far and I don't think they fancy their chances vs Patriots pass defense either. They are probably also ok with a slow tempo game, offensively relying on rush offense and betting again on their defense to make plays. That being said, although we don't see many total this low nowadays in the NFL, I just don't see many points scored in this game and will take the under here.

Also, don't forget to check out our new feature for comparing outright odds. These two opponents are both part of the AFC conference. Odds for winning it can be found with this link: https://theplayer.com/odds/american-football/usa/nfl/nfl-afc-conference-winner