On Saturday, Nottingham Forest host Brentford at City Ground.
I believe the odds market to quite some extent overestimate the prospect of a goal to be scored by the home team.
Nottingham Forest
The Reds from West Bridgford have hit an early season slump in form. With only 1 point from the last 5 games, Forest hover just 2 point above the relegation zone.
Statistics
Nottingham create above the league average of shots so far this season, Nottingham creating on average 11.94 shots per game.
However, only Sheffield Wednesday and Wycombe Wanderers have created fewer shots on target than Nottingham so far this season, Nottingham creating on average 2.81 shots on target per game.
Also, Nottingham have a hard time producing high quality goal scoring chances. Only Derby County and Blackburn Rovers have taken a slightly lesser proportion of the created shots from within the 6 yards box so far this season.
Only Derby County have a worse shoot percentage than Nottingham so far this season, the Nottinghamshire outfit scoring a meager 20% of the created shots on target.
Consequently, Nottingham have scored a mere 0.56 goals per game so far this season.
Looking at the four most recent games specifically, no other team have created fewer shots on target per game than Nottingham (Nottingham creating on average 1.25 shots on target per game).
Brentford
After yet another slow start to the season, the Bees are picking up speed and is currenty in 6th spot with 11 points from the last 5 games.
Statistics
No other team have conceded fewer shots than Brentford so far this season, Brentford conceding on average 8.88 shots per game.
Only Middlesbrough, Swansea City and Watford FC have conceded slightly fewer shots on target than Brentford so far this season, Brentford conceding on average 3.00 shots on target per game.
Brentford have the best defensive record when looking at away games specifically, the West London club conceding 7.38 shots and 2.38 shots on target per game when away from Brentford Community Stadium.
All things combined, Brentford have conceded on average 0.94 goals per game so far this season (0.75 goals per game on the road).
Looking at the four most recent games specifically, only Stoke City have conceded slightly fewer shots on target per game than Brentford (Brentford conceding on average 1.75 shots on target per game).
Check out the Championship table, upcoming fixtures and lots of other stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Only two teams have created fewer shots on target than Nottingham so far this season, the four most recent games looking particularly poor.
No other team have conceded fewer shots and shots on target on the road than Brentford so far this season, the four most recent games looking particularly solid.
My Betting Tip is Total Nottingham Forest Goals: 0.
Stake at 8.75/10 units.
