San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills: Defying the odds (and injuries)

Excellent opportunity

San Francisco still has a bunch of important players on IR. Starting with Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Nick Bosa. The list goes on and on, but their situation is much better this week, then it was in some previous matches. They are getting some solid players back like Tevin Coleman. With a team that relies so heavily on their running game, this position is very important. And now they have their 1-2 punch back in the lineup, Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman.

Both of them are probably licking their chops, looking at this matchup. Buffalo Bills have one of the worst run defenses in the league at the moment. They are allowing 4.7 yards per carry, which is currently placing them in 29th place in that statistical category. That is not a new problem. They struggled with it in previous years as well, which is why they spent a lot of money in free agency to clog that middle of the defensive line. It didn't help much, meaning that the scheme is probably the one that is the core of this problem.

Too much on Allen's shoulders

One way or another, that weakness didn't stop Buffalo, to have a great season so far. They are 8-3 at the moment, threatening to end the Patriots reign in the AFC East division. They are winning games mostly by outscoring others. When people doubted their draft selection a couple years ago, they stood by their decision, surrounded Josh Allen with some weapons on offense and they are enjoying success now. Offensive coordinator Brian Dabol deserves a lot of credit for it, adjusting his system to the strengths of his playmakers.

But there might be a slight problem with carrying all their eggs in one basket. That basket is Josh Allen. They are not using their running game as much as they should and are happy to put the game on Allen's shoulders way too often. He's producing at a high rate at the moment, but having your franchise QB running around so often and making plays out of pocket is a double-edged sword. No matter how big that QB is, you are one awkward tackle away from season going down the drain.

49ers vs Bills betting tips

Despite playing without their starting QB, I think San Francisco should be a bigger favorite in this game. They are a very tricky matchup for Buffalo. They have fast linebackers that will not allow Allen to get the edge and get chunks of yardage on the ground, Their pass defense is also very solid and will be difficult for the Bills to find a lot of success through the air. Also, they will have the full control of the clock and the tempo of this game. The 49ers will dominate the line of scrimmage, winning the battle in the trenches, especially on offense. They should have no problems running the ball on this defense, considering it's probably a Top 3 rushing offense vs Bottom 4 rushing defense.

Despite the return of Tevin Coleman, it's still expected from Raheem Mostert to have that 1A role in the Niners backfield. He will get enough touches to easily beat this line imho. He's always very dangerous to pop one and take it to the house. I think this is a good opportunity for him to do just that

Also, don't forget to check out our new feature for comparing outright odds. If you think Raheem mostert can be the player with most rushing yards in 2020 season, check out the odds with this link: https://theplayer.com/odds/american-football/usa/nfl/nfl-regular-season-player-most-rushing-yards