On Wednesday 25 November Derby County travel north to face Middlesbrough at the Riverside Stadium.
I believe the odds market to some extent overestimate the prospect of the visitors scoring goals.
Middlesbrough
The Boro is off to a promising start to the season occupying 11th spot with 18 points from 12 games.
Statistics
No other team have conceded fewer shots than Middlesbrough so far this season, Middlesbrough conceding on average 9.50 shots per game.
No other team have conceded fewer shots on target than Middlesbrough so far this season, Middlesbrough conceding on average 2.00 shots on target per game.
Middlesbrough also have the best defensive record when looking at home games specifically, the North Yorkshire club conceding 8.67 shots and 1.67 shots on target per game when at Riverside Stadium.
Middlesbrough also have one of the best save percentages in the league so far this season, Marcus Bettinelli saving some 75% of the faced shots on target.
All things combined, Middlesbrough have conceded on average 0.50 goals per game so far this season (0.50 goals per game when at Riverside Stadium).
Derby County
The Rams have seen a rather terrible start to the season, currently rock bottom in the table with 6 points from 12 games.
Last week, Phillip Cocu was replaced by Co-Interim Managers Liam Rosenior, Wayne Rooney, Justin Walker and Shay Given. This might be good news in the longer term but there is still a great deal of concern at the club. The fitness of most players is a big issue as pre-season wasn't good enough for getting players fit, there are motivational/morale issues in the squad and moving away from Cocu's passive style of play might take some time.
Statistics
Derby create below the league average of shots and shots on target, Derby creating on average 11.17 shots and 3.17 shots on target per game.
However, Derby have a really hard time producing high quality goal scoring chances. No other team have created fewer shots within the 6 yards box so far this season and only Coventry and Barnsley have taken a slightly greater proportion of the created shots from outside the 18 yards box.
Derby have the lowest shoot percentage in the league so far this season, the Derbyshire outfit scoring an appalling 13% of the created shots on target.
Consequently, Derby have scored a mere 0.42 goals per game so far this season.
Check out the Championship table, upcoming fixtures and lots of other stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
No other team have conceded fewer shots on target than Middlesbrough and displaying one of the highest save percentages in the league Middlesbrough have conceded just 0.50 goals per game so far this season.
No other team have created fewer shots within the 6 yards box so far this season and Derby also have one of the lowest shoot percentages in the league, resulting in a mere 0.42 goals scored per game so far this season.
I do believe that the odds market to some extent overestimate the prospect of the away team scoring goals.
My Betting Tip is Total Goals by Derby County: 0.
Stake at 5/10 units.
