Rise like a phoenix
After underperforming miserably in the first half of the season, Patriots rise like phoenix from the ashes to successfully start the second half of the regular season. We are used from Bill Belichick's teams that they need some time to find their groove and that they are usually timing their form perfectly for the most important parts of the season, but not many believed it will happen this time around. A lot of pessimism surrounded this team, considering the way they performed so far. Cam Newton didn't play as well as they hoped. Some of those Covid opt-outs proved to be very important and even the defense wasn't on their usual level.
But, beating Baltimore the way they did last week, definitely restored hopes for the Patriots fans and I believe it was not a fluke either. Couple of things that we always know we'll get from Bill's teams. Hard work, effort, discipline and great preparation. In this sport, those things will help you to get some wins. This team needed more time to click and find their rhythm. even though they are sitting at 4-5 and have two very good teams in their division ahead of them, I wouldn't rule them out just yet.
Tear it down
On the other side, Houston organization was a synonym for failure in previous seasons. They have a bunch of talent on their roster. A solid young QB, they can build their franchise around. But it was all ruined because of incompetent leadership. Bill O'Brien is gone now, but that didn't give immediate results as some hoped in the Texans organization. Romeo Crennel is simply not someone that will inject new energy to this team and the results are an indicator of that. They lost 3 out of their last 4 games and I expect some big changes in the coaching staff after the season.
Looking at the injury reports, we can see one important name on there. Laremy Tunsil was unable to practice all week because of an illness. In previous years, I'd be sure that he's gonna play through it, but in 2020, illness is something teams and the league are very careful about, so he might even sit this one out. It would be a big boost for the Patriots pass rush, that struggled a bit so far this season. Getting to Watson as soon as possible and preventing him to extend the plays is the key.
Texans vs Patriots betting tips
Does this short spread line seem like a trap? It does. Will I still take the bait? I will. Although the Texans probably have many playmakers on the offensive side of the ball that can make some explosive plays, that is not something that decides football games in the NFL. Errors often do. That is why I am siding with a more disciplined team that will not shoot themselves in the foot with the penalties and the turnovers. Something Houston could do in crucial moments of the game.
Looking at the player props, I was surprised by some of the lines for the Patriots' running backs. For example, James White seems to be the favorite for the 3rd down work, but Burkhead actually has averaged more catches per game in the last month or so, catching almost 4 passes, to White's 3. That is why that 12.5 yard receiving line seems a bit low. Second, Damien Harris lined up in the mid 60's for rushing yards. It probably has something to do with Sony Michel being activated from IR, but they were not very happy with Michel's production earlier and I believe Harris is a clear cut workhorse on early downs. This is a plus plus matchup against the worst run defense in the league that allows 5.2 ypc.
Also, don't forget to check out our new feature for comparing outright odds. These two opponents are both part of the AFC conference. Odds for winning it can be found with this link: https://theplayer.com/odds/american-football/usa/nfl/nfl-afc-conference-winner
