It wasn't a bad start for our outright picks yesterday as both Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Ekaterina Alexandrova won their first round matches in straight sets. Dayana Yastremska also went out against Greet Minnen, clearing the path a bit in the first half. Today, the #1 seed Aryna Sabalenka steps on court and just like with Yastremska, I already mentioned the unpredictability of her game in my outright preview.
Consistent inconsistency
Jasmine Paolini will take on Sabalenka and even though I don't think she can achieve big things on indoor hard courts, the Italian is always up for a good fight. Being only 5'4'' tall, a big first serve is something Paolini lacks, but she has an aggressive baseline game with good point construction and is able to sprinkle winners from both sides.
Initially I didn't plan on opposing Sabalenka in the first round, but the odds here are a bit excessive for my liking. When you only look at numbers, the Belarusian surely plays some great tennis right now, having won Ostrava two weeks ago and also competing well on clay before. However, her match against Sorribes Tormo in Ostrava showed the ups and downs she's going through on a regular basis. That comeback win gave her some confidence on her way to the title, but it could look very different again this week.
Hard to keep focus
After Ostrava, Sabalenka went back home to Minsk where she had some time off the courts. It seems like she enjoyed life a bit and also had a lot of photo shoots. I'm not even questioning her motivation, but the whole WTA tour scheduling makes it difficult for players to keep focus with so few tournaments taking place.
Again, I wouldn't be shocked if Sabalenka cruises here, but there still are some concerns about her consistency which make the odds on Paolini look tempting. The Italian is a gritty player and will try everything to keep this close. If Sabalenka checks out for a few minutes, it might be enough to cover the handicap(s) as I split a unit on three different bets: Paolini +6 games at -100, Paolini to win a set at +217 and a long shot on her to win the match at +650.
