WTA Linz - Last chance for glory

We are headed to Linz, Austria for the last WTA tournament of the year. After Camila Giorgi beat Ekaterina Alexandrova in the 2018 final, it was Cori Gauff going all the way through qualifying to win the title last year. It was the young American's maiden title on tour and came in very unique fashion. Gauff lost her final qualifying match against Korpatsch, but got into the main draw as a lucky loser. Voegele, Kozlova, Bertens, Pektovic and Ostapenko all fell victim to Gauff's marvelous run which no one could have predicted after that qualifying loss.

Inconsistent Favorites

Neither Gauff nor runner-up Ostapenko are competing this year and it's Aryna Sabalenka leading the draw. The Belarusian is looking to end the season strong after she already won the latest WTA event in Ostrava. After trailing Sara Sorribes Tormo 0-6 0-4 40-A in the quarterfinal, she showed her immense potential, not only turning this match around, winning 12 consecutive games, but also proceeding to beat Jennifer Brady and Victoria Azarenka, both in straight sets, on her way to the title. These wins could easily get you excited, but on the other hand Sabalenka's game is still unpredictable which keeps me from picking her at odds as low as 4.50.

There are no first round byes either in Linz, so the #1 seed, just like everyone else in the draw, has to win five matches in order to become the last champion of 2020. Jasmine Paolini is Sabalenka's first round opponent and even if the Italian can hang in there, her game is not made for indoor hard courts. Viktoria Kuzmova is quite the opposite player, but the Slovakian is off my radar until she can finally put together two consecutive wins again. Stefanie Voegele, who made it out of qualifying, might go on a little run in this mini-section, but I still don't consider her as a long shot to win the tournament.

That's different for Oceane Dodin. The Frenchwoman made it through qualifying without any trouble and won an ITF 25k event in France two weeks ago. She seems to finally have managed to get over all her health problems and definitely thrives on fast indoor courts. Jil Teichmann is a tricky first round opponent, but if Dodin gets past the up-and-coming Swiss, who still prefers clay courts, I like her path since neither Sorana Cirstea nor Julia Grabher are specialists on indoor hards.

In the second quarter, we have another player with unlimited potential in Dayana Yastremska. Just like Sabalenka, I don't like backing her at such low odds though with consistency still being a concern at this point of their careers. Barbora Krejcikova was a player I had circled when going through the draw, but her odds dropped significantly while writing this preview. So while I think the Czech can cause Yastremska some trouble in a potential second round match, my second outright pick is Aliaksandra Sasnovich from the other eighth.

Bernarda Pera might not be the easiest first round opponent, but the American also didn't win too many matches indoors at WTA level over the course of her career. Jana Fett and Tereza Martincova are no pushovers on the surface, but both had troubles qualifying with Martincova taking MTOs as well. When you look at career winning percentages, Sasnovich performs best on indoor hard courts and I like her to get out of the second quarter.

Another Alexandrova Outright

A lot of clay courters romp about in the third quarter. Spotting French Open semifinalist Nadia Podoroska as a seed is uncommon and I'm not sure how she fares here in Linz, having played only three matches indoors back in 2016. Besides the Argentinian, players like Begu, Sorribes Tormo, Gracheva or Zavatska are in that quarter, narrowing the field of contenders down to Camila Giorgi, Katerina Siniakova and Ekaterina Alexandrova.

I hope I don't do Sorribes Tormo wrong as she really made a step forward this year, but the books already give her some credit and I'm not ready to pick her as an outright on (indoor) hard courts yet. Unfortunately, Siniakova and Alexandrova face each other in round one, but despite some tough losses recently, I like Alexandrova in this one. The Russian who resides in Prague has been to the final here two years ago and brought her game to another level ever since. Camila Giorgi, who beat her in the 2018 final, falls into the Sabalenka/Yastremska category of "can't trust her enough to have a bet on the outright market".

Quarter #4 has some interesting names in it as well. The two seeds Veronika Kudermetova and Elise Mertens surely are contenders to win it all and herein lies the problem as they are both among the five tournament favorites. Even before a potential quarterfinal clash, there are some obstacles along the way like Arantxa Rus or Marta Kostyuk. The latter plays Vera Zvonareva in round one with the winner facing Mertens which means there will be a tough test for the Belgian in round two either way. So if I had to choose, I would go for the bigger priced Kudermetova, but I just don't see a clear pathway here and will stick to my Alexandrova pick in the bottom half.