Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints: NFC South on the line

New kid on the block

This is a match that could very likely decide a NFC South champion in the end. Current ruler (Saints) will face the new kid on the block (Buccaneers) that are trying to dethrone them. These two teams already met in the opener, when New Orleans successfully defended their home turf with a 34-23 win. But, it was a difficult spot for Tampa Bay, as it was for all teams with new faces in key positions. With limited offseason practices, Tom Brady didn't have much time to find some chemistry with his teammates on offense.

That became even more evident when the Bucs played better and better every since then. They did have few hiccups, such as stupidly dropping that win in Chicago. Some would also point to last week's game, where NY Giants had an opportunity to push it into the OT as 13-point underdogs, but I'm not that sure about that one. The Bucs got caught into a classic NFL look-ahead spot, where they were already with their minds on this very important divisional match-up and they almost paid a price for it.

Decline

On the other side, it seems like Saints went into the opposite direction since that opener. Sure, they had many injuries, especially on offense that they had to overcome, but their performances were simply not what we were used to from them in previous years. Drew Brees' decline might be one of the reasons for that. He is still a decent QB, but his ball is not what it was before. He is not as dangerous downfield and that allows opposing defenses to come down to the line of scrimmage and play those screens and short passes more efficiently.

Defensively, we're seeing a serious decline compared to previous years. They are still defending the run pretty well (3.6 yards per carry), but pass defense is not as good as it was. They are allowing way too many big plays, which was not the case before. One of the reasons is Marshon Lattimore's season. We are used to seeing him play on an elite level, being a true shutdown corner, which is not the case this year. Not having one side of the field locked down as before, makes it more difficult for coaches to scheme up the rest of the coverage, which was not even that spectacular before.

Buccaneers vs Saints betting tips

Looking at some of their previous games, they squeaked out most of these wins. Two OT wins in the last three games, vs teams that they should beat comfortably, considering their status of being one of the NFC contenders. Lets look at some of the common opponents that these two teams had. Saints lost to the Raiders and Packers. Tampa Bay defeated these two teams by at least 25 points each. Saints defeated Carolina and Chargers narrowly by 3 points in the overtimes. Tampa Bay won by 14 and 7. Both on the road. The only edge that the Saints are holding in this category is a 3 point win over Chicago, where Tampa  Bay lost by one.

I think this line is too low because of New Orleans' win in the opening week and because they still have a lot of credit by the betting market for all the success they had in this division in the previous year. None of these two reasons really matter. The facts are that New Orleans is not playing that great at the moment, while Tampa bay is. They match up well vs the Saints with those speedy linebackers that will not allow Kamara to play in space.

Also, don't forget to check out our new feature for comparing outright odds. These two opponents are both part of the NFC South division. Odds for winning it can be found with this link: https://theplayer.com/odds/american-football/usa/nfl/nfl-nfc-division-south-winner-reg-season