On Saturday, Portsmouth host Charlton Athletic at Fratton Park and I believe the odds market overestimate the prospect of away goals.
After the infamous mismanagement and unparalleled drop from the Premier League to League Two between the years 2010 and 2013, Pompey have enjoyed stability for a few years now under the Pompey Supporters Trust
and former The Walt Disney Company Chairman and CEO Michael Eisner through his investment firm The Tornante Company.
Kenny Jackett was appointed manager in June 2017 and although the style of play isn't appreciated by all fans, Jackett has guided the club to three consecutive top-8 finishes and two play-off campaigns in League One. This season looks bright as well, Portsmouth claiming 5th spot with 17 points after 9 games conceding only 7 goals.
Only 5 teams have conceded fewer shots than Portsmouth so far in the Championship this season, Portsmouth conceding on average 10.44 shots per game.
Only Sunderland, Milton Keynes Dons and Hull City have conceded fewer shots on target than Portsmouth so far in the Championship this season, the Hampshire club conceding on average 2.78 shots on target per game.
The Addicks are off to a great start to the season as well, occupying 6th spot with 16 points from 8 games. But if Lee Bowyer is aiming for a swift return to the Championship he's got his work cut out for him: the current top-6 spot is mainly propelled by an unsustainable 50% shoot percentage including 6 goals in the 4 most recent games against teams from the bottom third of the table.
Only Bristol Rovers, Crewe Alexandra and Wigan Athletic have created fewer shots than Charlton so far in League One this season, Charlton creating on average 9.38 shots per game.
Only Wigan Athletic have created marginally fewer shots on target than Charlton so far in the Championship this season, the south-east London outfit creating on average 2.25 shots on target per game.
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Only three teams have conceded fewer shots on target than Portsmouth so far this season.
Only one team have created marginally fewer shots on target than Charlton so far this season. Charlton have scored in 4 games in a row now against bottom-third teams and I believe this is a great time to bet against them scoring again.
My Betting Tip is Total Goals by Charlton Athletic: Under 0.5.
Stake at 5/10 units.