Phew! Both Daniel Evans and Alex de Minaur survived a tough first test yesterday in Antwerp. Time to head to Ostrava and preview the penultimate WTA tournament of the year. Spoiler: I wouldn't be overly surprised if my outright picks are out in a few hours, so if you're not into taking risks, maybe stop reading here.
Taking Two Shots
Only two first round matches are yet to be played in Ostrava and both my outright picks in the first half are underdogs in said matches. Sounds like a recipe for disaster, but let's see. Elina Svitolina is the top seed and I'm curious to see how she comes back after yet another missed opportunity at the Grand Slam stage. She will look to redirect pace on these courts against some good hitters, but in this field, I wouldn't put my stocks on her. The Ukrainian plays Maria Sakkari first, who beat Kristyna Pliskova 6-3 6-3 in her opener.
In the other second round match, Ons Jabeur awaits the winner of Jelena Ostapenko and Petra Martic. Even though I had a bet on Martic at the French Open, the Croatian didn't fully convince me in quite some time now. That's why I could see an opening for Ostapenko here. We all know what the Latvian is capable of when she's on her game. Second round opponent Jabeur looked great, not only in her first round match against Strycova, but for the most part of this pandemic season and I wouldn't blame anyone betting her at +1400. However, Ostapenko's odds just rose to +5000 and I'm willing to take the risk, knowing she could just bash herself out of the tournament any given day because then again, if she finds her rhythm, these are the courts she thrives on.
In her first indoor match in almost two years, Victoria Azarenka faces Barbora Krejcikova today. The Czech proves that she can be a good singles player more and more and after a fourth round appearance at Roland Garros, she swept through qualifying and her first round match, beating Juvan 6-3 6-0, Teichmann 6-3 6-2 and Martincova 7-5 6-1. I think Krejcikova will be a tough opener for Azarenka and at odds of +450, the Belarusian is not on my radar this week.
Karolina Muchova beat Shuai Zhang 6-1 6-1 yesterday and I'm handed the exact same situation as in quarter #1. I could totally get behind a bet on the Czech at odds of +1200, but will go for another big priced outright here with Amanda Anisimova. For some reason, bet365 now offer +6600 odds on her when she was only +4000 yesterday. That might have to do with Muchova's impressive showing, but the American is value to me at that number. Of course, her first round opponent Elise Mertens could easily beat her and go on a run herself, but Anisimova trained hard at the Mouratoglou Academy last week and I don't think she's still in Europe for fun. Just like Ostapenko, she can become a dangerous opponent when she's on top of her game.
From Death's Door to Glory?
All first round matches have already been played in the bottom half of the draw. Anett Kontaveit survived a nail-biter against Ekaterina Alexandrova who had more than enough chances to move into the second round herself. Anyway, it's Anett Kontaveit who faces Sara Sorribes Tormo today. The Spaniard also improved, but I'd be surprised if she went on a run on these indoor courts. Either Cori Gauff or Aryna Sabalenka await in the quarterfinal and the fact that both are priced lower than Kontaveit makes me pick the Estonian as my third outright at +1300. Faster courts have always suited her and sometimes, a messy first round win can be the start of a great run.
To cut a long story short, I have no idea who comes out of the fourth quarter. It's good to see Daria Kasatkina finding some confidence again and Jennifer Brady continuing her great run on hard courts. Veronika Kudermetova is still on the rise as well and might be a tricky opponent for Karolina Pliskova again after she already beat her in "Cincinnati". However, the Russian didn't prove she can go deep in such a quality field before. Regarding Pliskova, her odds are not as low as I assumed them to be, but I'm not sure what shape she's in while Brady's odds are simply too low for me at around +700.
Let's hope for a week full of surprises, the French Open should give us some hope.
