Bounce back
After initial flop at Jacksonville, Indianapolis rebounded really well and won three games in a row. Frank Reich and his staff realized what they did wrong in the opener and immediately adjusted. They threw the ball 46 times at Jaguars. That is not who they are. They are a simple offense that runs the ball behind that great offensive line. And they did lean much heavier towards the running game in the last three wins, where Rivers never attempted more than 29 passes.
Defensively, they did way better than expected. DeForest Buckner was a fine acquisition in free agency, that helped them solidify that front. And that is exactly what he did. They are allowing only 3.6 yards per carry, putting their opponents in more 3rd & long situations, making this easier for their secondary. They made another solid FA signing back there. Xavier Rhodes had a rough year in Minnesota, but obviously welcomed the switch from man to zone scheme, where he's performing much better.
Score for score
Their run defense will be put to the test today. They are playing against one of the most efficient run offenses in the league. The Browns invested a lot into this OL and it's paying off for them. Having Nick Chubb (injured) and Kareem Hunt in their backfield is just an added bonus, because they can do so much with that good blocking up front. Colts defense will miss one of their key players. Darius Leonard is out with injury, while his backup Bobby Okereke is questionable. Missing two important linebackers in a match-up like this one could be quite meaningful here.
Speaking of the Browns defense, they barely held up last week in Dallas, where they allowed 38 points, but luckily got help from offense which managed to put up 49. With Greedy Williams out, they don't have anybody to play opposite of Denzel Ward and that could be a problem today.
Browns vs Colts betting tips
I do expect some points to be scored in this game, considering all the facts that I mentioned above. But I like one of the player props more than the game total. I am talking about Kareem Hunt and his receiving yards. He is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. With Nick Chubb out, he will take the vast majority of the snaps at the running back position today. The Colts are missing Darius Leonard, who is usually doing a great job covering running backs. With 2nd or even maybe 3rd string option replacing him, Hunt will have a plus matchup in the passing game and an opportunity to get some nice yardage.
Also, don't forget to check out our new feature for comparing outright odds. These two opponents are both part of the AFC conference. Odds for winning it can be found with this link: https://theplayer.com/odds/american-football/usa/nfl/nfl-afc-conference-winner
