On Saturday night, Newcastle United host Burnley at St James' Park in the fourth round of the 2020-21 Premier League. I believe the odds market overestimate the prospect of goals being scored.
Newcastle United
In the end, the Magpies finished last season with a 10-point cushion to the drop zone, but manager Steve Bruce's side were rock bottom in most models assessing Expected Goals metrics.
Statistics
There were on average 2.16 goals scored in Newcastle's home games last season, 53% of the games ending with less than 2.5 goals scored.
Regardless of whether you fancy Burnley as a top half team or a bottom half team, Newcastle displayed one of the lowest total goals averages in the Premier League last season when at St James' Park:
When facing teams from the top half of the table last season, Newcastle's home games saw an average of 2.30 goals scored per game.
When facing teams from the bottom half of the table last season, Newcastle's home games saw an average of 2.00 goals scored per game.
Burnley
The Clarets finished in 10th place last season, Sean Dyche working his magic with one of the least spectacular squads in the top flight.
Statistics
There were on average 2.42 goals scored in Burnley's away games last season, 53% of the games ending with less than 2.5 goals scored.
Regardless of whether you fancy Newcastle as just a bottom half team or a bottom 6 team, Burnley displayed one of the lowest total goals averages in the Premier League last season when away from Turf Moor:
When facing teams from the bottom half of the table last season, Burnley's away games saw an average of 1.80 goals scored per game.
When facing bottom 6 teams last season, Burnley's away games saw an average of 2.17 goals scored per game.
Check out more Premier League stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Newcastle displayed one of the lowest total goals averages in the league when at home last season.
Burnley displayed one of the lowest total goals averages in the league when facing bottom half teams on the road last season.
For what it's worth: the five most recent clashed between the two teams have seen on average 1.60 goals scored per game (under 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 games). The corresponding game last season ended 0-0.
My Betting Tip is Total Goals: Under 2.25.
Stake at 5/10 units.
