Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs: Too good

Printing money

There's a crazy stat about Patrick Mahomes as an underdog so far in his NFL career. He was priced as an underdog 6 times so far, won 4 of those games straight up and is 5-0-1 against the spread in those spots. Basically, if you backed Mahomes as an underdog since his NFL debut, you haven't lost a bet. That trend is pretty wild, considering how efficient the NFL closing number is and how difficult it is to beat it. But still, we can't be shocked by that stat. Patrick Mahomes is the best player, surrounded by many playmakers on the offensive side of the ball and led by one of the best coaching staffs. Giving points to those guys just doesn't seem like a very good idea.

They started the season with 2 wins, which surprised absolutely nobody. But did have some problems in their last game at the Chargers where they needed an OT to get past their divisional foe, who was forced to start their rookie QB. That might look like a concern, but that Bradley's defense has traditionally caused some problems to these Chiefs. They have enough good corners to play man defense across the board and a couple of really good rushers that doesn't let Mahomes get too comfortable inside the pocket.

What can Baltimore do differently?

Some will argue, well that is something Ravens can do as well. Yes, but only to some extent in my opinion. For example, these two teams met last year in a very similar situation and Kansas City won 33-28. Mahomes threw for 374 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions that day. There were not many roster changes on either side since that game. Ok, maybe some new faces in the secondary for the Chiefs. Fuller left, Bashaud Breeland is suspended for the first 4 games of the season and Chavarius Ward has a broken hand. But Baltimore is not really a team that will attack that weakness at corner, because they would shy away from their own strength, which is the running game. That is why I don't see it as such a massive problem in this game.

It'll be more important to have a plan on how to contain Lamar Jackson outside the pocket. He is so good at extending plays and throwing the ball on the run and/or picking up the first down with his rushing ability. He is averaging almost 50 yards per game over the first two games of the season.

Ravens vs Chiefs betting tips

As I already hinted, I'm definitely leaning towards the underdog in this situation. Kansas City Chiefs are too good of a team to be getting three points in my opinion. Their strength lies in the ability to play from behind whenever that is needed and being extremely successful at it, because of the numerous playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.

Couple of player props that I'm looking at right now. Mark Andrews is one of the main weapons for the Ravens, but I think this receiving yards line is slightly too high. Chiefs have a bunch of good safeties on their roster, including Tyran Mathieu, Juan Thornhill and Daniel Sorensen. It creates a difficult matchup for Andrews that struggled last time out vs the Chiefs, catching three passes for 15 yards. Also, targets for the tight ends can be pretty inconsistent and when trying to beat the 55 yards mark, you need the ball being thrown your way quite often. Don't know if that is going to happen tonight.

Also, don't forget to check out our new feature for comparing outright odds. These two opponents are both part of the AFC conference. Odds for winning it can be found with this link: https://theplayer.com/odds/american-football/usa/nfl/nfl-afc-conference-winner