The last Grand Slam of the year won't take place in New York but in Paris and just like everything else in 2020, it will be a little different. The conditions are cold and heavy with a lot of rainy days being forecasted, making the courts in Paris even muddier and slower. New balls, a new roof and floodlight are notable innovations as well.
The FFT initially planned to approve a crowd of 11500, divided in 3 different zones. These plans had to be cancelled though due to increasing Covid cases. Instead, there will now be 1000 spectators allowed to enter the Stade Roland Garros every day. Let's hope everyone stays safe and we'll see some entertaining tennis this upcoming fortnight.
Quarter 1
Just like at the US Open, this draw is pretty unbalanced to me. Top seed Simona Halep is arguably the best clay player in the field currently, but at odds of +250, I wouldn't bet anyone in a women's Grand Slam. On top of that, her section is loaded with players that can be nasty on a given day. After facing clay court specialist Sara Sorribes Tormo in round one, the up-and-coming Swiss Jil Teichmann might await in round two. An unfortunate draw for the 23-year-old, whom I had marked as a dark horse before the draw came out. Americans Bellis, Pera and Anisimova fight for a third round meeting with the top seeded Romanian. I don't think any of them would stand a chance though as Bellis prefers faster surfaces, Anisimova doesn't seem to be happy or motivated playing tennis in a bubble and Pera just doesn't have the level to beat top players on clay.
The other section of the Halep eighth is pretty packed as well. Dayana Yastremska, Eugenie Bouchard, Iga Swiatek and Marketa Vondrousova aren't the most consistent players around, but especially the two latter have the ability to grind out matches on the red dirt. Unfortunately, the two youngsters already have to face each other in the first round. Yastremska can always be a threat and Bouchard is slowly finding the tennis again that once made her one of the top talents in the sport. However, there's just way too many capable players around to take any of them in the outright market, especially with Simona Halep lurking on top of the draw.
In the other eighth, we have Johanna Konta and Kiki Bertens as the top seeds. The Dutch didn't win a match since lockdown and also had to retire in her match against Ostapenko in Strasbourg last week. Not the best conditions for making a deep run at a Grand Slam. Konta on the other hand had one of the most random big runs on clay last year, reaching the final in Rome and backing it up with a semifinal appearance at Roland Garros. Nevertheless, I still wouldn't classify her as a specialist on the surface. So let's see who else is in this section.
We are far from the quality of the first section, but I kinda like the draw of another seed here, namely Maria Sakkari. The Greek faces her out-of-form friend Ajla Tomljanovic in the first round, who should allow her a good start to the tournament. After that, either Rogers or Rakhimova awaits in round two. The American was one of the pleasant surprises at the US Open, but I'm not sure whether her game translates well to the slow clay in France. If Sakkari gets to round three, either Konta, Gauff, Giorgi or Trevisan awaits and I do not want to predict the winner of that mini-section. Either of them have flaws in their clay game though, so that makes me feel even better about Sakkari’s chances.
Bertens' section has Svetlana Kuznetsova as the other seeded player and the Russian veteran is still good for a little run on clay. I would like to say the same about her first round opponent Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, but her decision making in rallies is questionable too often to be considered a threat on the Parisian clay. If Kiki Bertens should be injury-free, her draw looks like a beauty. Anyway, I'll take my chances in the other section and bet the competent clay courter Maria Sakkari to win the first quarter at +1400, hoping that Simona Halep struggles somewhere along the way.
QF Prediction
Halep over SakkariQuarter 2
The second quarter is just as loaded as the first one, making the first half really competitive. Elina Svitolina and Serena Williams are the top seeds here and while I do like Svitolina in the given circumstances, just like at the US Open, Serena was one I'm looking to oppose here.
Svitolina has a pretty favorable draw until the fourth round. She's playing Gracheva first and either Zarazua or Jacquemot second. All of them are talented, but right now, they shouldn’t be a threat for the #3 seed. In the third round, either Blinkova or Alexandrova, who she both has the surface advantage of, await.
In the second week, obviously the tasks would become a lot more difficult for Svitolina. Elise Mertens is another player I liked before the draw was made, but she probably won't be too happy with how it shook out. After having a walking bye with an out-of-form (and probably still injured) Margarita Gasparyan, Mertens will have to go through Bouzkova/Kanepi and probably Anett Kontaveit just to reach the fourth round. The Estonian could be considered a threat to go far herself, but given that tough section, I will pass on both Mertens and Kontaveit.
Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams are set to meet again in the round of 16 here in Paris after Vika beat Serena in the semifinal of the US Open. Both veterans have feasible draws, which makes it hard for me to oppose them. Danka Kovinic played some fine tennis recently and won’t be too pleased about drawing Azarenka in the first round. Although the US Open finalist retrieved some of her best tennis again in recent weeks, I have a hard time seeing her as the third favorite on clay. The same applies to Williams, whose fitness concerns I already talked about in my US Open preview. The cold and heavy conditions won't suit her at all. At least Williams should be familiar with her opponents as she has the same first round draw as in New York, facing Kristie Ahn, and might also play fellow mom Tsvetana Pironkova again in round two.
Yulia Putintseva was reaching the quarterfinal in New York and almost granted us a quarter winner at a nice price. She was the only dark horse I considered in the Azarenka/Williams eighth. The odds on her to win the tournament were +60000 yesterday, but that number is long gone unfortunately. Furthermore, one of the more dangerous qualifiers got allocated in her mini-section in Nadia Podoroska. Therefore, I'll stick to my pick from the other section and take Elina Svitolina not only to make it out of the quarter but to win outright at +1600 odds.
QF Prediction
Svitolina over AzarenkaQuarter 3
Now we head to the half where pretty much anything can happen. None of the players in here were on my radar pre-draw. That's unfortunate on the one hand, but it also presents long shot opportunities on the other hand. Aryna Sabalenka and Sofia Kenin are the top seeds in the third quarter. Both are playing their best tennis on faster courts and even though Sabalenka reached the semifinal in Strasbourg, she's still not consistent enough to hit through good clay players, at least not for seven matches in a row.
Her potential second round opponent was one I was initially looking forward to bet, but Daria Kasatkina rolled her ankle pretty badly during her match against Azarenka in Rome and although she's still in the draw, I'm not sure if she's actually gonna compete. A shame since she finally seemed to find her tennis again on clay. Ons Jabeur might be one to watch with her slice and dice kind of play, but after qualifiers got allocated, there's an 18-year-old Ukrainian in that section whom I have high hopes for.
Marta Kostyuk first showed herself to the tennis world at the 2018 Australian Open when she made her way through qualifying and all the way to the third round at the age of 15. After that, the pressure on her increased and despite showing her massive talent here and there, her breakthrough takes longer than expected. She still showed signs of inconsistency in qualifying, but in the end didn't have too much trouble getting her ticket to the main draw. At the US Open, Kostyuk made the third round where she lost to eventual champion Naomi Osaka, but was able to take a set off her. At +3300 odds to win the quarter, I’m taking a long shot on the young Ukrainian. No one in her section really scares me and there's a chance for her to set up a fourth round meeting with Garbine Muguruza.
The Spaniard is the second favorite to win the title and even though she played well in Rome, I'm not convinced she should be as low as +700 to win the tournament. Her draw looks feasible, but these odds just don't present value to me. Another interesting youngster got placed in Muguruza's section with Clara Tauson. The 17-year-old Dane is into her first Grand Slam main draw and faces Jennifer Brady in the first round. She won the Australian Open juniors competition last year and might present a tough challenge for the aspiring American. Brady is among the most improved players of 2020, but she is yet to show that she can also translate her success to slow clay courts.
In the other eighth, #4 seed Sofia Kenin has a tricky first round match against Liudmila Samsonova. It remains to be seen how this year's Australian Open champion copes with the double bagel Azarenka handed to her in Rome. Personally, I'm not looking to bet Kenin although she should have a cake walk to the second week if she gets past Samsonova.
One of Elena Rybakina, Fiona Ferro and Karolina Muchova would probably be Kenin's fourth round opponent and I would oppose the American with any of them. It really is a pity that Rybakina and Ferro are projected to play in round two as they are the two names standing out to me here. While Ferro didn't play a match after her (and our) big win in Palermo, Rybakina showed that she can handle the cold and heavy French conditions pretty well, reaching the final in Strasbourg. That's why I'm betting the young Kazakh and hope she can continue her rise.
QF Prediction
Rybakina over KostyukQuarter 4
The fourth quarter of this year's French Open draw is quite something. Literally all the seeds are vulnerable, but I also struggle to see who of the unseeded players could make a deep run here. Let's start with #2 seed Karolina Pliskova. She will probably go on a run and win this whole thing the one time I'm not betting her on the outright market, but I'm a bit concerned about her health after she had to retire due to injury for the first time in her career in the final of Rome.
Petra Kvitova and Madison Keys have pretty nice draws, but I don't think the even slower and lower bouncing courts will help them go on a run here. Their projected third round opponents are Angelique Kerber and Magda Linette, whose strenghts lie apart from clay courts to put it carefully.
In Pliskova's eighth, we have Sloane Stephens, who could always go far on slower surfaces, but even the most patient fans and bettors refrained from putting their hopes on the former US Open champion in the meantime. Alison Riske's mini-section is probably the weirdest one of the whole draw. Siegemund, Mladenovic, Goerges and Riske can (or could) all be considered good tennis players. However, on current form and in the given circumstances, I would probably oppose all of them if I could. Anyway, one of them will make it to the third round and here's a chance to attack the quarter.
Petra Martic is the #13 seed and a win over Misaki Doi should be a mere formality. A second round clash with Veronika Kudermetova should be fun, but I give the surface advantage to the Croat and also think her game is better designed to go on a deep run. Granted she gets to round three, one of the aforementioned quartet awaits. Enough for me to take Martic to win this quarter.
If we want to gamble on Pliskova's fitness (and a lot of other things like serve and consistency when it comes to that player), Jelena Ostapenko could be someone making a run on the venue she celebrated the biggest win of her career. Add that to the things I did not plan to write when thinking about this preview like a week ago. The Latvian's newly collaboration with Thomas Hogstedt is interesting and might lift her game again. Anyway, the odds on her are just not big enough for me to take a shot.
That looks different with a French veteran in the other eighth, namely Alize Cornet. The gritty 30-year-old should love these conditions and I wouldn't be surprised if she beat Keys in round two. You can get her to win the quarter at +2200, but Kambi still have her at +39900 to win outright. So I go with that super long shot, considering a not so strong third quarter which should make a hedge possible if she makes it deep into the tournament. Leylah Fernandez and Kaja Juvan are interesting names in that eighth as well and another option would be Polona Hercog, but I eventually decided to go with the Frenchwoman only.
QF Prediction
Martic over CornetCan Elina or Elena take down Simona?
Simona Halep is the rightful favorite and it is hard to see her lose to anyone on current form, but nothing is for granted in a women's major, so I took some chances on other players. My two outrights to win the tournament are Elina Svitolina and Elena Rybakina. While I initially felt bad about both making the final in Strasbourg, I don't think it's a bad sign now. The conditions over there should be quite similar to the ones at Roland Garros and although staying inside the bubble all the time, Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka both made the final of the warmup tournament and the Grand Slam in New York as well.
Good luck to everyone betting this year's French Open!
