AFC West preview: Can someone derail The Chiefs?

Kansas City Chiefs

To win division: 1.22

Regular season total: 11.5 wins

Season or two ago, AFC West was considered pretty much wide open. This year, it's the most lopsided division in the NFL, when we talk about the odds to win it. Winning Superbowl can have that kind of effect on the betting markets. But also, it was not even close last year. Kansas City won the division comfortably with 12 wins, while all the other teams ended below .500 mark. Chiefs hijacked all the NFL headlines this week with a move that we rarely see in this sport. They tied up their franchise quarterback with a massive 10-year deal that could be worth up to $500 million dollars. Patrick Mahomes is definitely a special player and deserves to be paid like one, but let's see how this move pans out for the Chiefs in the end. This deal will eat a massive portion of their salary cap and present a challenge for the front office to put together a solid roster to support their crown jewel.

At the moment, they are still doing fine when it comes to that. Their money is well spent, invested in some very good players in key positions, such as O-line, pass rush, and wide receivers. Secondary has some talented young players that are playing above their pay grade. Their defense struggled against the run last year, allowing almost 5 yards per carry to their opponents. Ability to address that and improve will determine the success of that unit in 2020. Kansas City Chiefs are the 6/1 favorites to win the Superbowl at the moment. But paying this type of juice to win the division is a bit too risky in my opinion. Many things can go wrong in a football season and injuries are the first thing that comes to mind. Chiefs are carrying a lot of their eggs in one basket, called Patrick Mahomes. One well placed hit by the defender, or lineman rolling into his ankles could send the Chiefs 2020 season down the drain.

Los Angeles Chargers

To win division: 9.00

Regular season total: 7.5 wins

La Chargers' stock took the biggest hit comparing to last year when their season total was at 10 wins. Injuries on both sides of the ball and the decline of Philipp Rivers were just too much to overcome. But the main reason behind 2020 total is not the disappointing 2019 season. I believe the main reason is that for the first time in 15 seasons, they have some uncertainties regarding the most important position in football. They decided that it is time to move on from Philipp Rivers, who signed with Indianapolis Colts. They drafted Justin Herbert out of Oregon as 6th overall. He has a lot of potential, but is still quite raw. Until he's ready, Tyrod Taylor will be the signal-caller. Anthony Lynn is very familiar with Taylor, with whom he worked in Buffalo and is confident that he can get the job done. Betting market doesn't seem so sure about that, which is not surprising. He was never really considered as a starting QB material by the NFL public.

But, he proved time and time again that he can win some games when he's surrounded by some talent. And there's plenty of that in Los Angeles. Their defense is scary when healthy and they added a couple of pieces into that puzzle during the offseason. Bringing in Chris Harris Jr made their secondary even stronger than it already was. While spending first-round pick on Kenneth Murray will help them overcome Denzel Perryman's issues with availability.

Denver Broncos

To win division: 10.00

Regular season total: 7.5 wins

John Elway really struggled with finding a new franchise quarterback, after hitting a jackpot with Peyton Manning. We witnessed some massive whifs by him in this post-Manning era. It is fair to say that underwhelming QB play was slowing Broncos down in the past 5 seasons, and preventing this talented roster to fulfill its potential. That might change pretty soon. They drafted Drew Lock in the 2nd round of 2019 draft and he showed a lot of potential, the minute he stepped on the NFL gridiron last year. Denver was 3-8 when they activated him off injured reserve list and managed to win 4 out of their last 5 games with him under center.

That definitely boosted morale throughout the entire franchise and the city of Denver. In Drew Lock, they finally got a young signal-caller, that could lead this team to playoffs. They used many high picks in this draft to give Lock more weapons to play with. First two picks were both wide receivers while adding an O-linemen in the 3rd and a TE in the 4th round. That type of investment really shows how much the front office believes in him. Defensively, they are set. Elite pass-rushing duo (Miller - Chubb), strong secondary and Vic Fangio (one of the best defensive minds in the game) as head coach. They just needed some help from the offense, to take some of the burden of their shoulders and now they have that.

Las Vegas Raiders

To win division: 12.00

Regular season total: 7.5 wins

Team that is least likely to win the AFC West according to the betting markets are the Raiders. And I tend to agree with that. When Jon Gruden took over the helm, he decided to clean the house and start over. Getting rid of some All-Pro caliber players like Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper definitely set them back a little bit, but he was willing to do it in order to start building "his house" from the ground up. One of the last remaining pieces from the McKenzie's regime is QB Derek Carr. Jon Gruden kept him, part of because he thinks highly of his skill set, and part because he knows how difficult is to find and NFL QB that can start and win games. But, they decided for an interesting move, adding Marcus Mariota from Tennessee Titans in the free agency. They are obviously giving signals to Derek Carr that he needs to step up, or else...

Defense is probably why they are going to struggle in this tough division. It's pretty young and we can see some bright spots here and there, but as a unit, things still haven't fallen in its place under defensive coordinator Paul Gunther. This unit needed help in pretty much all the lines, but I am not sure if the front office addressed those needs, the way they should have. Cory Littleton was a nice get, but in the top half of the draft, they mostly focused on offense. Ok, they did get CB Damon Arnette at the end of the first round, but I'm not sure that'll be enough.