Indianapolis Colts
To win division: 2.20
Regular season total: 8.5 wins
It looked like the Colts were starting to recover really well under the leadership of GM Chris Ballard and the HC Frank Reich. But all of a sudden, Andrew Luck decided to retire just before the start of the 2019 season. They had a lot of confidence in their backup option Jacoby Brissett, whom they brought from New England. But ultimately, the loss of Andrew Luck was just too big of a hit for this team, that was unable to reach the playoffs. Evaluating the QB play from last year, they obviously felt the need to add somebody and they decided to go with Philipp Rivers, who ended his 15-years long stint with the Los Angeles Chargers.
But, is Rivers enough of an improvement over Brissett to take them from 7 wins to 10+, that will be needed to win this division? I am not that sure. Maybe in his prime, but at one point during the season, he'll turn 39. The arm strength is not there anymore and there is a reason why Chargers felt it is time to move on. One thing does favor him though. He rarely had a solid OL in Los Angeles/San Diego and he is getting one here. It will give him time to go through progressions and make some key reads/calls at the line, something he always loved to do. Still, I don't think it's enough of an improvement to justify them as favorites to win the division. Especially in a competitive one, with Houston and Tennessee both being capable of snatching it. They spent some big bucks (and giving up 1st round pick) to bring in Deforest Buckner from San Francisco, solving that 3-tech position. Xavier Rhodes was another veteran signing on defense, but he was going through a bad period in Minnesota. He was burned many times last season, indicating that his speed might be gone. But luckily for him, he won't be on an island as much in Matt Eberflus' defense, which is not as "man" base as the one Mike Zimmer is running in Minnesota.
Tennessee Titans
To win division: 2.50
Regular season total: 8.5
Tennessee Titans were the biggest surprise of the last season. At the beginning of the season, it seemed like they have two backup QB's. Marcus Mariota was not playing as good as everybody in that organization expected when they drafted him as 2nd overall in 2015. And his backup was Ryan Tannehill, who came from Miami, where he was labeled as a bust. But, after getting a chance with the Titans, he showed what he is really capable of when he has a good organization behind him and plays under some good coaching. He led the Titans to a 9-7 record and wins over Baltimore and New England, before eventually losing the AFC championship game to Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, he had some help from the running game and the defense. But his contribution didn't go unnoticed, because Titans signed him to 4-year, $112 million contract.
They managed to lock up another of their stars on offense, giving $50million to their running back - Derrick Henry, who was unstoppable down the stretch. But that came at a price because they were forced to let some other players go, such as RT Jack Conklin, DL Jurrell Casey, and CB Logan Ryan. Without making many splashes to replace those players in the free agency, I doubt they can build on their success from last year. But with some disciplined football that they're capable of playing, I can see them being contenders to win this division.
Houston Texans
To win division: 4.50
Regular season total: 7.5
Houston started the 2020 with a bang. Bill O'Brien was in the starring role once again, trading away one of his best players. Getting rid of arguably Top 3 wideout in the league was not the most disturbing thing, but the compensation that they've got for DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona was able to get him for 2nd round pick and an overpaid running back (David Johnson), carrying a 10+ million cap hit. Needless to say, the Cardinals won that trade. Johnson did have his moment earlier in his career, but the injuries and a poor OL that he played behind affected his production lately. Bad news for him is that Houston's OL is not much better, so I won't be expecting his resurrection any time soon.
They replaced Hopkins with Brandin Cooks, which I don't quite get. Don't get me wrong, Cooks is a very good player, but his skill set is quite similar to Will Fuller's, their no.2 receiver. Now they have two guys on the outside with blazing speed, but no possession receiver that can beat press coverage easily and get some contested catches in the 7-15 yards area. Also, spending $27 mil on Randall Cobb, even though they already have a solid slot receiver in Coutee (+Kenny Stills) is money they could have used elsewhere. For example, they are paying Cobb $9mil/per-year, while RT Jack Conklin signed with Cleveland for $12 mil and is playing a position that they're trying to solve forever. Defense doesn't seem that bad but is a bit top-heavy and their performance will depend on the health of their key players like JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus that are getting up there in age. The secondary has some nice depth with several corners behind Roby and Conley that can play.
Jacksonville Jaguars
To win division: 23.00
Regular season total: 4.5
It's quite difficult to comprehend how quickly that 2017 Jaguars team fell apart. They had the best defense in the league and were on the verge of getting into the Superbowl that year. It seemed that all they needed was a better QB and they'd be back in the Superbowl contention. Unfortunately, that never happened. That locker room was full of strong characters that obviously didn't mesh too well with the old school, no-nonsense guys like Doug Marrone and Tom Coughlin. That is why it was no surprise the tension there got overwhelming, as soon as the results were not that great anymore. Many of those guys like Jalen Ramsey are not with the team anymore for that reason, despite their talent. And it seems that they haven't completely cleaned out the clubhouse yet, with Yannick Ngakoue still demanding a trade.
Something positive to build around is their 6th round find from last year - Gardner Minshew. He stepped in after Nick Foles went down in week 1 and immediately showed great poise and playmaking ability. Something we rarely see from 6th round rookies. They struggled with OL injuries last year, but if they can stay healthy I can see him playing even better in 2020. An important part of that will be Jay Gruden. He didn't do that well as a head coach in Washington, but he is a great offensive mind that will do well as an offensive coordinator. His task will be building a system around Minshew that will play to his strengths and hide his weaknesses. He has a lot of talent to work with, both on the offensive line and the skill positions, which is a rare situation. It's up to him to make it work now.
