Baltimore Ravens
To win Division: 1.36
Regular season total: 11.5 wins
We're concluding the AFC preview series with the North division, which Baltimore Ravens won by landslide last year. Most of the credit for their 14-2 record goes to a player, that in 2018 draft got snubbed by every single team in the league. Besides Baltimore Ravens of course, who drafted him as the last pick of the first round. Many analytics were skeptical if he can even play at QB in the NFL and were suggesting that he should change positions. But Ravens believed all along and it paid off for them. It was also very smart from them to use his athleticism outside the pocket. After a couple of dual-threat QB's getting hurt in the previous decade (RGIII), teams shied away from that and were trying to make pocket passers out of these incredible athletes (Marcus Mariota). Baltimore chose a different path and that is why Lamar Jackson was one of the most exciting players last year and was also the MVP.
But as we've seen many times in the NFL, it is important not to sleep on your success. Opponents are constantly finding solutions to counter successful systems. And sooner or later, they always manage to find it. That is why teams need to improve constantly, having plan B ready and simply evolve in all phases of the game. That being said, I'm not a huge fan of what Baltimore did in the offseason. Their moves seemed pretty passive. No splash signing to help their young QB, who desperately needs another pair of hands on the outside, because that group of receivers is a bit underwhelming. Also some stability on the interior OL would not hurt, where things will fall apart soon if injuries happen.
Pittsburgh Steelers
To win division: 5.00
Regular season total: 8.5 wins
Pittsburgh Steelers were 8-8 last year, which doesn't seem that great, considering they were pretty much always contenders in this division under Mike Tomlin. But, when we highlight the fact that they were without their starting QB throughout most of the season, 8-8 look much better. The problem for the Steelers is that Ben Roethlisberger played all 16 games only three times in the last 11 seasons. He only once missed more than 4 games (last year), but he is often playing with minor injuries, bruised up, limping, etc. And those things will bother him more and more since he's closing out on 40. His supporting cast is vanishing around him. A couple of years ago he had Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, and one of the best OLs in the league. Now some of those guys are gone, while the front office struggled to give this unit a fresh injection of talent.
But looking at this defense, we might see Steelers turning back to their roots. Being an old school, smashmouth football team. This defense has the potential to beat people up, especially up front, where they've invested several high draft picks, which paid off. Cameron Hayward, TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush... With this core in the front seven, they can take on anybody. I believe that after years of being an offensive-minded, high scoring team, they will ask their defense to lead the way now and complement it with a suitable offensive gameplan. Trying to establish the run game, control the game clock, and take some shots downfield out of play-action.
Cleveland Browns
To win division: 6.75
Regular season total: 8.5 wins
In 2018, Cleveland was the closest to reach .500 for the first time since 2007. That was the key factor behind the decision to promote Freddie Kitchen into a head coach. In less than a season, he went from being running backs coach to offensive coordinator and finally a head coach. They obviously liked how Kitchens managed the offense in 2018 with a rookie QB Baker Mayfield. He did a really good job with the running game, which helped out the young signal-caller a lot. In 2019 they needed to take a step forward with their passing game and let their 1st overall pick to run the show. But it was obvious that Kitchens might be out if its depth there because the offense fell apart. The passing game was out of sync despite all the talent available. Mayfield arguably regressed, comparing to his rookie season and Kitchens had to go.
They made a reasonable choice, going with an offensive-minded coach in Kevin Stefanski. He spent 13 years in the Vikings organization, making the best out of his opportunity in the last 18 months there when he took over the playcalling responsibilities from John DeFilippo. He managed to fulfill Zimmer's demands for improving the run game, although the talent on the OL was not elite. I am very excited to see what he can do in Cleveland, whose offense is loaded with talent from top to bottom. Protecting Baker Mayfield was their biggest problem last year, but they invested a lot to improve there, signing Jack Conklin from Tennessee and drafting Jedrick Wills as 10th overall.
Getting one of the best TE's in the game, Austin Hooper is not that shabby either. Defensively, they lost Joe Schobert and Christian Kirksey. Their absence could be felt in the middle, but they managed to keep all the key positions very strong. They have many players that can rush the passer (Myles Garrett, Sheldon Richardson, Olivier Vernon, Adrian Claybourne) and some that can cover man to man (Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams). When you have those pieces in place, it is easier to scheme everything else. Overall, this roster is put together nicely and a rare get for a rookie HC. He doesn't need to worry about any rebuilds, but just come in and show what he can do.
Cincinnati Bengals
To win division: 29.00
Regular season total: 5.5 wins
Zac Taylor was not as lucky as Kevin Stefanski when he took over the Cincinnati Bengals last year. He inherited a roster in ruins from Marvin Lewis and will need a couple of years to rebuild it. That should be easier now when he has a great prospect at QB that he can mold into a franchise signal-caller. I'm talking about Joe Burrow of course. A quarterback that struggled early in his collegiate career, but blossomed into a slam dunk No.1 pick, after transferring to LSU and having an unforgettable 2019 season. They will have to be careful with how much they'll put on his shoulders in his rookie year. This offensive line is simply not good enough and it would be pointless to see him getting hammered behind it, every time gets into a 5 or 7-step dropback.
Not known as big spenders in the free agency in the past, Bengals surprised with few splash signings in the offseason. They went out and got DJ Reader from Houston and Trae Waynes from Minnesota. Two players that were one of the best available at their positions. They had a couple of smaller signings as well, such as Mackenzie Alexander and Vonn Bell, making that defensive unit looking very solid on paper. Trying to run through the middle vs DJ Reader and Geno Atkins will be a difficult task for any opponent. As will be throwing against pair of corners like Trae Waynes and William Jackson III. But, there are still many holes to fill in this roster, and even with Joe Burrow, I don't see them getting close to .500 record yet, especially in a competitive division like this one.
