New England Patriots
To win division: 2.05
Regular season total: 9.5 wins
We've seen it many times in the past, but this transaction confirmed it more than ever – Bill Belichick knows nothing about emotions when it comes to running the New England Patriots. After 20 years and 6 Superbowls, he decided that it was time to move on from Tom Brady, and that is exactly what they did. Brady is now wearing a Buccaneers jersey, while the Patriots are entering a new era, where we'll find out how big of a part in their success Tom Brady was. Is he really a "system quarterback" as many are saying, or he's one of the most valuable players to ever play the game and whose presence will be dearly missed. I guess we're going to find out very soon.
QB free agent market was not that bad this year. There was a bunch of serviceable passers, that would fit into Belichick's system and do the job. But, for some reason, they weren't really biting. It seemed like they really were thinking about giving a Jarrett Stidham a chance and properly evaluate what they have in their 4th round draft pick from 2019. But ultimately, they did decide to add a proven veteran. And not just anybody. Just a couple years ago, Cam Newton led his Carolina Panthers to the Superbowl and it seemed like he'll retire there. But, his stint with the Panthers came to an abrupt end, after a couple of disappointing seasons. He is getting a fresh start in New England, with a coaching staff that already has a great system in place. Patriots as a franchise are a well-oiled machine. I think that Newton's transition will be effortless and that they'll continue being contenders for the AFC East title.
Buffalo Bills
To win division: 2.37
Regular season total: 8.5 wins
Another AFC East person with close connections to Carolina Panthers is Sean McDermott. He took over the helm of the Buffalo Bills in 2017 and led them to two playoff appearances in the last 3 seasons, ending their 18-season long playoff drought. They set a solid foundation in place and are now ready to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East title. Especially after a season that Josh Allen had last year. He confirmed that they made the right choice in the 2018 NFL Draft, even though the pick had some "mixed reviews". He was a very raw prospect, but he showed that he can learn from his mistakes and build on a mediocre rookie season. Coaching staff helped him by adding weapons around him and building an offensive system that will highlight his strengths, big arm, and incredible athleticism.
What surprised me last year is that their defense was a bit inconsistent. I felt that earlier in the season they struggled with stopping the run through the middle. They lack depth at corner and a pass rusher opposite of Jerry Hughes. looking at their free-agent signings, the front office seems to agree with me. They beefed-up the interior with Vernon Butler and Quinton Jefferson. Added Mario Addison and drafted AJ Epenesa to get some double teams away from Jerry Hughes. And signed Josh Norman, who didn't have a great season with the Redskins, but will fit perfectly into this scheme. He is very comfortable in this scheme in which he earned all-pro honors in 2015, playing under McDermott in Carolina.
New York Jets
to win division: 9.50
Regular season total: 6.5 wins
Next up - the New York Jets. It was a difficult season for the Jets last year. It started in the off-season already, when the front office was not on the same page with the coaching staff. On top of that, Sam Darnold was out for the first couple of games because of mononucleosis, so they were in a very tough spot to start the season. And it showed on the field. They were 1-7 at the half, but bounced back strong in November and December, finishing 7-9. It definitely gives them something to build on in 2020.
Bringing in Joe Douglas from Philadelphia to take over the GM job was a good move. But looking at this roster, he has a lot of work to do. There is some talent there and they are probably glad to have Sam Darnold as their QB. But they need to put more talent around him, especially when talking about OL and protecting him. They drafted Mekhti Beckton in the first round and signed George Fant from Seattle to start on the right side. But this unit will need some time to gel, especially with all this going on, preventing teams to get their players on the field and practice. Defensively, they are probably one of the worst units in the league. I can understand the frustration of Jamal Adams, who is demanding a trade because there is simply not enough talent around him. Return of CJ Mosley will definitely help, but having a mediocre pass rush and no corners is not a good thing in this league.
Miami Dolphins
to win division: 9.50
regular season total: 6 wins
There was another team in this division sharing 1-7 record at the half-mark last season. But that was expected. There was a prop bet offered before the season, that the Miami Dolphins will go 0-16 in 2019. The roster was a mess, they had no QB and a new, first-time head coach. Everybody expected them to start with the re-build. Get rid of the bad contracts, accumulate draft capital, and even tank, so they could get the first overall draft pick and get the QB of the future. People who expected that to happen, obviously forgotten that Brian Flores is a part of Bill Belichick's coaching tree. Losing was never part of their mindset, under any circumstances.
I was extremely impressed with what coach Flores has accomplished in his first season with the Dolphins. They could take the easier path and get themselves Joe Burrow in this year's draft, solving their QB for the next X years. But, he decided that changing the mindset of everybody within that organization is more important than getting a great QB prospect. And that is why he will succeed and get Miami Dolphins back to winning ways. This roster has a long way to go still, but they will make improvements, step by step. Combined with discipline, hard work and good leadership, I am sure they will become a winning team sooner, rather than later.
Even though they missed out on Joe Burrow, they still got a pretty good QB with their 5th overall pick - Tua Tagovailoa. For quite some time, he was expected to be the first overall pick, but injuries hurt his draft status quite a bit. That could be the problem going forward, with a suspect Dolphins' O-line. But luckily for them, Ryan Fitzpatrick showed last year that he still got it and can step in and be productive at any time. Defensively, we can see another similarity between Flores and Belichick. They really value cornerback position. Even though Miami already had one of the best cornerbacks in the business (Xavien Howard), they went out and got themselves another one (Byron Jones), forming the best cornerback duo in the league.
