Wind of Change
It's a lot more quiet at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center this year. Noisy fans are replaced by a bubble which only players and their teams are allowed to enter. You might still catch an airplane departing here and there, but the 2020 US Open will be different to the ones we know. And so will be the surface as the new Laykold courts replace DecoTurf after 42 years. There has been a lot of talk about court speed and opinions vary from "still slow" to "30% faster than it used to be". However, we're betting on a tour where in 2019, Ashleigh Barty won the French Open and Simona Halep won Wimbledon, so I won't put too much focus on court speed.
Just like Barty and Halep, last year's US Open winner Bianca Andreescu opted for safety over travelling into an uncertain bubble. Only four top 10 players made their way to Flushing Meadows, but that does not prevent us from being hyped for the first Grand Slam in seven months.
As mentioned, Andreescu won her first Grand Slam title in New York last year. She beat Serena Williams in the final after eliminating our +5000 outright Belinda Bencic in the semifinal. The Swiss, who also chose to stay in Europe this year, still made us some decent money as a quarter winner, so why not start this year's outright preview with a quote from last year.
Quarter 1: Another opportunity for Karolina Pliskova
"[...] Karolina Pliskova comes upon a picture-perfect draw. The only concern is that she’s still losing matches she should be able to win easily [...]. Being 27 [now 28] years of age and with lots of newcomers knocking on the door, you don’t want to squander good draws like that."
That good 2019 draw only got her to the fourth round, where she lost to Johanna Konta. This year, the tall Czech is the #1 seed and once more, she cannot complain about her allocation. Her third round match might be a tough test against an in-form Jennifer Brady, but after that, this is Pliskova's quarter to lose. The other seeds in her eighth are Angelique Kerber and Alison Riske and while Riske is struggling to find her pre-pandemic form, we didn't see Kerber play at all since Melbourne and I'm a bit surprised she even made the trip to New York.
In the other eighth of the first quarter, Marketa Vondrousova and Petra Martic are the highest seeds. The flood of withdrawals actually resulted in Martic being the #8 seed in a Grand Slam. The Croatian did not look superior on European clay though and her body caused her some problems as well. I don't know what exactly is wrong with the talented Czech Vondrousova, but her form is suspect as well.
Usually, that's a spot where I like to attack draws, but there aren't too many players that excite me in the first quarter. Maybe the feisty Kazakh Yulia Putintseva is one to watch out for. She's facing the gifted 15-year-old Robin Montgomery in the first round and overall, her draw looks very kind. If she can build up energy, which I'm sure she will be able to even without the fans, the #23 seed could go on a little run here.
Some of the better players remaining in the first quarter are CiCi Bellis, Caroline Dolehide, Ann Li, Arantxa Rus, Aliaksandra Sasnovich or the ever-struggling Frenchwomen Caroline Garcia and Kristina Mladenovic. I just don't think any of them can go on a deep run in a Grand Slam currently. Summarized, I don't see too many obstacles for Pliskova to get out of that quarter, but I also like the +2500 odds on Putintseva, so I consider betting both of them to win the first quarter if prices maintain until the time of posting.
QF Prediction
Karolina Pliskova over Yulia Putintseva
Quarter 2: Hard Hitters Galore
It is pretty common that tennis draws are a bit unbalanced, but this US Open draw takes the cake. Almost every player I was on the lookout for pre-draw got placed in the second quarter. Naomi Osaka passed Serena Williams and is now the tournament's top-favorite. She's sitting on top of the quarter, but looking at her draw, I would refrain from betting her at +500 odds. After a Japanese matchup with Misaki Doi in round one, the big hitting starts for the 2018 winner. Camila Giorgi or Alison Van Uytvanck await next and if Osaka gets past them, I have her playing either Marta Kostyuk or Coco Gauff, and this is completely dismissing #31 seed Anastasija Sevastova and former top 10 player Daria Kasatkina. Only one of the players mentioned will be able to get to the fourth round. A brutal draw to say the least.
Still in the same eighth, Anett Kontaveit has a little bit of an easier path. But even that contains a first round matchup with Danielle Collins. If the in-form Estonian gets past her, she should also be able to beat Juvan or Arconada and Magda Linette. So a meeting between Osaka and Kontaveit is projected in round four and would promise an entertaining matchup. In this week's build-up tournament, the two faced each other in the quarterfinal and Osaka won a close third set.
Elena Rybakina, Dayana Yastremska, Marie Bouzkova, Jessica Pegula and Petra Kvitova are all players I would have considered to back in the first quarter. Now, they are all in the same eighth and whoever makes it out of that will still have to beat Osaka or Kontaveit just to win the quarter. I may sound like a broken record, but man, this whole section is brutal.
The odds are pretty accurate as well in my opinion, but from all the difficult paths, Rybakina's might be one that's best to manage. Maybe Yastremska hits herself out of the tournament early, which would ease her path a bit more. Kvitova's form isn't the best and her struggles with heat may open things up for fellow countrywoman Bouzkova or American Pegula as well. Anyway, I'll go ahead, cross my fingers, hope for Rybakina to regain her form pre-lockdown and take her to win the quarter at +800 odds.
QF Prediction
Elena Yastremskova over Naomi Kontaveit
Quarter 3: Blessed Mom(s)
One of my favorite angles coming into the US Open was to oppose Serena Williams. I still wish her all the best and she might still win another Slam, but she did not look good to me the two previous weeks. Not a single win in straight sets, against opponents she usually rolls over like Pera or Rus, who even served for the match at 6-5 in the third. Her losses to Shelby Rogers and Maria Sakkari only strengthened that perception. Serena also cramped against Sakkari, which is not the best sign ahead of a demanding fortnight, and I have a feeling that she just isn't able to create the same power as before. Who can blame a 38-year-old mother and 23-time Grand Slam winner.
Unfortunately, her quarter has some more players with question marks and we have to dig a little deeper to find proper options. First of all, Serena isn't the only mother in the third quarter. She's surrounded by three more in Patricia Maria Tig, Olga Govortsova and Tsvetana Pironkova, who makes her comeback after more than three years.
In the top eighth of the quarter, we have Madison Keys, Shuai Zhang, Donna Vekic and Garbine Muguruza as seeded players. Neither of them played much or showed great form. Muguruza was great at the Australian Open, but I'm a bit surprised oddsmakers put her among the 5-6 favorites to win the US Open. Keys' odds, as usual, are also a little too short for me on the outright market, given her inconsistency.
Maybe one of Alize Cornet, Jil Belen Teichmann or Liudmila Samsonova makes it out of this section as especially the two latter showed some really promising performances this summer. If the +20000 odds with betfair (or even the +10000 with Unibet) are still available by the time I release this post, I will take a super long shot on Samsonova to win the quarter.
Maria Sakkari is projected to play Serena Williams again in the fourth round and I only really see one player that could stop them from doing so. Amanda Anisimova is probably the most talented player (besides Serena) in the quarter, so I always consider taking an outright on her. Despite her struggles with a shoulder injury in Lexington, I kinda like her odds at +1400. The young American has an easier path than Sakkari and if they meet in the third round, I would make it a very close affair. Therefore, I take the bigger odds and hope Anisimova's shoulder holds out.
QF Prediction
Amanda Anisimova over Madison Keys
Quarter 4: Balance Saga
The fourth quarter is the most balanced of the draw. All seeds, namely Aryna Sabalenka, Veronika Kudermetova, Karolina Muchova, Johanna Konta, Elise Mertens, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Ons Jabeur and Sofia Kenin could make it to the semis. Two of the most promising players in Iga Swiatek and Leylah Annie Fernandez are also allocated down here and I wouldn't be surprised if they upset a player or two.
Belarusian standout players Aryna Sabalenka and Victoria Azarenka could already meet in the second round and with Azarenka's regained confidence, that's already enough to keep me away from an outright on Sabalenka. She has all the talent in the world, but it would take steady performances to get past Vika, Swiatek or Kudermetova and Muchova or Konta to get to the quarterfinals. That's too many names and not enough value for me to take any of them.
Elise Mertens is in great shape and after reaching the final two weeks ago in Prague, she only lost to Naomi Osaka in the semifinal of this week's "warmup" tournament. Value on her decreased a bit, but I do like her draw the most in the fourth quarter. The last section is loaded again and while I wouldn't talk anyone out of a Jabeur outright, I'm not sure if she can sustain her good form for another fortnight. The latest Grand Slam winner Sofia Kenin probably awaits in round three. She's the favorite to win the quarter, but nothing I've seen from her since lockdown would convince me to take an outright on her. Kenin might still be able to outgrind some of her opponents, but I think one of the other seeds in the quarter will be able to take her down. I'll go with Elise Mertens as my final quarter winner at +600.
QF Prediction
Elise Mertens over Aryna Sabalenka
