WTA Prague: Russian presenting value in adopted hometown

From Palermo to Prague

In the second week after restart, we are blessed with two WTA tournaments. Besides Lexington, there will be another clay event in Prague. A lot of the players that competed in Palermo also made their way to the Czech Republic. 16 of the 26 players accepted in the main draw came over from Italy. Anyway, this week's top seed Simona Halep withdrew from Palermo due to her "anxieties around international air travel at this time", so we will see the world #2 in action for the first time since February.

The Romanian is an even bigger tournament favorite than Serena Williams in Lexington as bookmakers price her in the 2.50 range. This is both a blessing and a curse as it should increase value on other players, but of course Halep could find some form and burst through the field. She will be playing Polona Hercog in the first round before facing either Patricia Maria Tig or Barbora Krejcikova. Her projected quarterfinal opponent is Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and even if the Russian gets past Arantxa Rus and a qualifier, she has an 0-8 h2h record against Halep and I don't necessarily see that turning around on clay. Either way, maybe someone will unexpectedly push Halep, but I will look for an outright selection elsewehere in the draw.

Dayana Yastremska was the top seed in the second quarter until the Ukrainian pulled out due to a dental issue yesterday. Anastasija Sevastova took her spot in the draw and will play Irina-Camelia Begu in the first match of the day. The winner of that match might face Fiona Ferro in the second round and even though I can see her going far for a second straight week, the odds decreased a bit too much for me to take another outright on the Frenchwoman.

In the other eighth, we have Laura Siegemund, a qualifier, Sara Sorribes Tormo and #7 seed Barbora Strycova and I don't see any of them making waves. This section might be a great spot for Marta Kostyuk to land in. The young Ukrainian made it out of qualifying after losing to Liudmila Samsonova last week and could pose a bigger threat here in Prague.

Conquering Clay Courts

One main draw match has been concluded before yesterday's washout and it was Genie Bouchard beating Veronika Kudermetova in convincing fashion 6-0 6-3. The Canadian is set to play either Tamara Zidansek or Katerina Siniakova next.

Also in that quarter is #3 seed Elise Mertens, who is projected to play Camila Giorgi in the second round if she gets past Jasmine Paolini. Mertens and Giorgi had some different results last week. While the Belgian bowed out of the tournament in round one against Sasnovich, Giorgi played some pretty consistent tennis for her standards. Once again, I can't trust her on a clay outright market though and her positive showing took away all the value. Mertens might be one to watch this week trying to compensate for her Palermo showing, but her odds are still a little too low for me at around 15.00.

We already arrived at the fourth quarter without having an outright selection, but don't worry, I have a player circled here. Petra Martic is the #2 seed and her draw looks feasible as she is surrounded by Varvara Gracheva, Kristyna Pliskova and youngster Linda Fruhvirtova in her eighth. However, Martic did not look as good as results might suggest in Palermo. Samsonova already had her in the ropes and in her semifinal loss to Kontaveit, the Croat also struggled with a thigh injury.

Ekaterina Alexandrova might be Martic's quarterfinal opponent and I really like her position in the draw. The Prague-based Russian was scheduled to play Daria Kasatkina in the first round, but her fellow countrywoman was forced to withdraw because of a hamstring injury. Alexandrova will face a qualifier instead before getting Ana Bogdan or another qualifier in round two.

As mentioned before, I hope Kostyuk will land somewhere else in the draw, but I'm taking a shot on Alexandrova at 21.00 nonetheless. The 25-year-old lives in the Czech Republic for 14 years now and playing at home makes things much easier, especially at times like these. Her game obviously suits the faster surfaces more, but she knows these courts very well and also put up some work to improve her clay game. The courts in Prague are a little faster than the ones in Palermo, so I hope Alexandrova will still be able to hit through her opponents. Even in Italy, none of the four semifinalists has been a clay grinder per se. So here's to a favorable qualifier placing and a nice little run by the adopted hometown player!