WTA Lexington: Hitting the Hard Courts

WTA returns successfully

The 31st Palermo Ladies Open will go down in history and be talked about for a long time. After a hiatus of almost five months, professional tennis finally resumed and never before has a WTA International event gotten that much attention.

There have been a lot of question marks before the start of the tournament as no one really knew about the players' conditions or how they would be able to handle the circumstances. Donna Vekic stated that 90% of the players wouldn't stay in the designated "bubble" however a lot of players disagreed with her and as the tournament proceeded, only on-court performances made the headlines.

Our betting week has been successful as well with an underdog win (Giorgi at 2.75) and an outright winner on Fiona Ferro at 28/1. Now it's time to head to the unknown again as hard court tennis will be back as well next week with the new "Top Seed Open" in Lexington, Kentucky.

Can anyone beat Serena?

You only have to read the names of the two top seeds to see that we have yet another ultra strong field for an International event. Said names are Serena Williams and Aryna Sabalenka and I certainly wouldn't be surprised if these two women meet in the final.

Serena is a way too glamorous person to focus on tennis only. That being said, besides her other priorities (being a mom always at #1), she also trained quite a lot and her installing a court with the same surface as this year's US Open will be played on made the headlines during quarantine. In Kentucky, an all-time classic awaits Williams in round two. If she beats Bernarda Pera, either her sister Venus or Victoria Azarenka will be her opponent in round two. Anyway, despite their prosperous careers, both Venus and Vika aren't even close to their former levels.

The other eighth does not have these illustrious names and Sloane Stephens is still worlds away from her 2017/2018 form as well. The former US Open winner plays a qualifier in round one before facing either Shelby Rogers or Misaki Doi. It would require a major upset if Serena didn't make it through this quarter and if you're into betting tournament favorites, I have seen worse options than the 4.33 on Serena.

A matchup between two highly talented players heads the second quarter. Amanda Anisimova and CiCi Bellis both have all the tools to go far in a tournament like this. However, you never know what you get from Anisimova and we still don't really know how to rate Bellis after her long time of suffering. A player I could get behind here would be Jessica Pegula, who finally lived up to her potential the last two years, especially on North American hard courts. Zvonareva and Teichmann are the two names I don't see coming out of this section while the winner of Tomljanovic-Putintseva could go on a little run as well. Nevertheless, none of these odds really excite me as Serena Williams should be too big of a mountain to climb in the semifinal.

Wide open second half

Just as the second quarter, the third quarter is up for grabs. Magda Linette and Johanna Konta are two of the more vulnerable seeds in the draw, so I'm looking for an outright in this section. Linette plays Lauren Davis first and I don't wanna pick a winner in that match. The winner will face either Jennifer Brady or Heather Watson, two players that showed some good form pre-quarantine. Especially Brady is a player I have high expectations on and she looks to be in better shape every day. The American competed in World Team Tennis and finished on an 8-6 record. While I don't read too much into one-set matches, she also went 4-1 in some exhibitons before, beating Siegemund, Loeb, Azarenka and Stephens all in straight sets.

In the other section, we have a qualifier, Anna Blinkova, Marie Bouzkova and Johanna Konta and I wouldn't blame anyone taking an outright on either of them. Personally, I like Brady to come out of the quarter at 20/1 as she is one of the most match fit players in the whole draw. As you could see in Palermo, where 4 out of 5 qualifiers won their first round matches (only Podoroska lost to the eventual tournament winner Ferro), this might be a factor in these restart tournaments.

The fourth quarter is a bit more top-heavy again. Aryna Sabalenka is looming at the bottom, but a tough second round encounter is projected against teen sensation Cori Gauff. While this would be a very enjoyable match, I think both players are a bit overvalued. Sabalenka at 5.50 only makes sense if she's somewhere near her A game, which you can never be assured of. Meanwhile, Gauff is getting way too much respect on the outright markets ever since her great run at Wimbledon last year. Jabeur or McNally would be no pushovers in the quarterfinals either, so I won't make another selection and hope we can cheer for Jen Brady at least a couple of rounds.