WTA Palermo: Paolini to put up another fight

Breaks and Breakdowns

The first round in Palermo is in the books and we already saw some great clay court matches. Center Court was a pretty busy place on Monday, so the final match of the day only started past midnight. Unfortunately, it was our outright pick Maria Sakkari who couldn't cope with the situation and got outplayed by Kristyna Pliskova in a 4-6 4-6 loss.

Before that, Sara Errani and Sorana Cirstea fought for almost three hours with the Italian getting the upper hand, winning 7-5 1-6 6-4 despite cramping during the third set. That match was followed by the one between Jasmine Paolini and Daria Kasatkina. The two clay court specialists shared the court even longer. After 3 hours and 9 minutes, Paolini won 5-7 6-4 6-4. Kasatkina wasn't able to hold her serve once in sets two and three, which lead to 18 breaks in 20 service games.

Split Sets?

While some of these stats reached a whole new dimension, I'm expecting a pretty similar match today between Paolini and Belarusian Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Clay is not necessarily Sasnovich's preferred surface, but the former world #30 went through qualifying without losing a set and also beat #5 seed Elise Mertens in impressive style 6-4 6-1 yesterday. The Belgian looked a bit rusty though and especially in set two, she didn't follow through her first serves anymore.

The oddsmakers opened Sasnovich in the 1.50 range and although she should be the favorite after what we saw from her so far, I think Paolini can keep the match close. The Italian went to the quarterfinals here last year, only losing to Kiki Bertens in three sets after beating Siegemund and Begu. Especially at home, the 24-year-old will try everything to repeat last year's success. During her first-round match, Paolini had her left thigh taped, but she didn't seem too affected and also looked good in her doubles win together with Giulia Gatto-Monticone yesterday.

Although we didn't witness any of that here in Palermo yet, Aliaksandra Sasnovich loves lopsided sets. You should always be prepared for rollercoaster matches and the 6-2 2-6 6-2 WTA stereotype scoreline is not uncommon when the Belarusian enters the court. With both players being in good shape, I can see split sets here. You can get odds of 2.62 on a three set match and I'm willing to take that risk in what could be a pretty close affair.