On Sunday Burnley host Brighton & Hove Albion at Turf Moor in the final round of the Premier League season. I find the odds for Brighton to score few goals too high at William Hill.
The Clarets have yet again managed a strong season, residing in 9th spot with 54 points from 37 games. Sean Dyche is indeed working miracles with one of the squads with the lowest total market value, and not losing on Sunday would mean beating the club points record in the modern Premier League era (54 point from the 2017/2018 season).
Burnley concede around the league average of shots and shot on target this season, Burnley conceding on average 14.42 shots and 4.56 shots on target per game.
However, looking at home games against bottom half teams specifically, only Chelsea, Leicester, Manchester City, Wolverhampton and Everton have conceded fewer shots on target than Burnley so far this season, the Lancashire outfit conceding on average 3.18 shots on target per game.
Only 6 teams have a better save percentage this season than Burnley, Nick Pope saving some 71% of the faced shots on target.
Brighton & Hove Albion
The Seagulls are safe from relegation with 38 points from 37 games, a 4 points cushion to the drop zone. How much are they willing to risk in the final game of the season, a match of little or no importance?
Only 6 teams have created fewer shots on target than Brighton so far this season, Brighton creating on average 3.73 shots on target per game.
Looking at the 4 most recent games, no other team have created fewer shots on target than Brighton, the East Sussex club creating on average 1.50 shots on target per game.
Only Norwich and Crystal Palace have a worse shoot percentage than Brighton this season, Neal Maupay & friends scoring a mere 26% of the created shots on target.
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Burnley is one of the teams conceding the fewest shots on target when facing bottom half this season.
Brighton is one of the teams creating the fewest shots on target this season and no other team have created fewer shots on target per game in the last 4 games.
My Betting Tip is Total Goals by Brighton & Hove Albion: Under 0.5.
Stake at 5/10 units.