Bournemouth - Leicester: The prospect of home goals overrated

On Sunday night Bournemouth host Leicester at the Vitality Stadium and I believe there's value to be found in the markets relating to the home team scoring few goals.

Bournemouth

The Cherries are on a terrible run of form and find themselves in the relegation swamp, 1 point below Watford at safe ground.

Statistics

Only Sheffield United, Crystal Palace and Burnley have created fewer shots than Bournemouth so far this season, Bournemouth creating on average 10.03 shots per game. Only Crystal Palace have created fewer shots on target than Bournemouth so far this season, Bournemouth creating on average 3.09 shots on target per game.
Looking at home games specifically, no other team have created fewer shots and shots on target than Bournemouth so far this season, Bournemouth creating on average 10.56 shots and 3.25 shots on target per game.
Looking at home games against top half teams, only Aston Villa, Southampton and Newcastle have created marginally fewer shots on target than Bournemouth so far this season, Bournemouth creating on average 3.38 shots on target per game.
Looking at the 4 most recent games, no other team have created fewer shots on target than Bournemouth, the Dorset club creating on average 1.50 shots on target per game.

Leicester

The Foxes are still in 3rd spot, but Chelsea and Manchester have closed the gap somewhat in recent games and are just 1 and 3 points behind. A Champions League spot is still very much achievable but focus and discipline is called for every single game.

Statistics

Only 4 teams have conceded fewer shots and shots on target than Leicester so far this season, Leicester conceding on average 10.30 shots and 3.61 shots on target per game.
Looking at away games specifically, only 3 teams have conceded fewer shots and shots on target than Leicester so far this season, Leicester conceding on average 11.31 shots and 4.19 shots on target per game.
Looking at away games against bottom half teams, no other team have conceded fewer shots on target Leicester so far this season, Leicester conceding on average 3.06 shots on target per game.
Looking at the 4 most recent games, only Wolverhampton and Manchester United have conceded fewer shots on target than Leicester, the East Midlands outfit conceding on average 2.25 shots on target per game.

Only Arsenal and Liverpool have a marginally better save percentage this season than Leicester, Kasper Schmeichel saving some 74% of the faced shots on target.

Check out more Premier League stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

No other team have created fewer shots and shots on target at home than Bournemouth this season and no other team have created fewer shots on target per game than Bournemouth the last 4 games.
No other team have conceded fewer shots on target on the road against bottom half teams than Leicester so far this season.
My Betting Tip is Total Goals by Home Team: Under 0.5.
Stake at 7.5/10 units.

Learn more about what a unit is.

Check out more odds on Bournemouth – Leicester here!