After the mid-week games, only two rounds remain of the current season of the German Bundesliga. On Saturday, Fortuna Dusseldorf host FC Augsburg at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf and I believe there's value to be found in the total goals markets.
Both teams tend to play out rather low scoring games when facing other teams form the bottom half of the table. At this stage of the season, every single point could be crucial for the home team, and I anticipate a cautious game where the fear of loosing is greater than the desire to gamble for a win.
Fortuna Dusseldorf
The red and whites from North Rhine-Westphalia are entrenched in the relegation battle; currently at the play-off spot, 3 points beneath FSV Mainz at safe ground and ahead of Werder Bremen on goal difference (Dusseldorf having one game in hand though).
Statistics
There has been on average 2.75 goals scored in Dusseldorf's home games so far this season. 44% of the home games have seen under 2.5 goals scored.
When facing teams from the bottom half of the table, there has been on average 2.14 goals scored in Dusseldorf's home games so far this season; 71% of the games have seen under 2.5 goals scored.
When facing teams from the bottom half and/or bottom third of the table at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Dusseldorf display the lowest total goals average in the league:
FC Augsburg
As I write, the kid brother from Bavaria is in 14th spot. After that pivotal win away to FSV Mainz on Sunday, Augsburg is 7 points clear of the drop zone.
Statistics
There has been on average 3.06 goals scored in Augsburg's away games so far this season. 56% of the home games have seen under 2.5 goals scored.
When facing teams from the bottom third of the table, there has been on average 2.25 goals scored in Augsburg's away games so far this season; 75% of the games have seen under 2.5 goals scored.
When facing teams from the bottom half and/or bottom third of the table, Augsburg display one of the lowest total goals average in the league:
Check out more Bundesliga stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Dusseldorf display the lowest total goals average in the league when facing teams from the bottom half and/or bottom third of the table at the Merkur Spiel-Arena.
Augsburg also display one of the lowest total goals average in the league when facing teams from the bottom half and/or bottom third of the table.
My Betting Tip is Total Goals: Under 2.75.
Stake at 5/10 units.
