Norwich - Southampton: Underrated visitors

On Friday evening, Norwich host Southampton at Carrow Road.
Norwich have quite a challenge post lockdown, sitting rock bottom of the table with 6 points to safe ground.
Southampton reside at 14th place, 7 points clear of the drop zone and 5 points adrift a top half spot.

Examine the Premier League table, upcoming fixtures and lots of other stats here!

Statistics

It's hard to say what impact such a gap as the Covid-19 lockdown might have on football, but there are a few findings from the restart of the German Bundesliga that might have some application on the restart of the Premier League as well:

Before the break, some 43% of the full time results in the Bundesliga were home victories.
After the break, only 20% of the full time results in the Bundesliga have been home victories (a decrease by 54%!).

Subsequently, the draws have increased from 22% to 29% of the games and the away wins have increased from 35% to 51% of the games.

A small sample indeed, but it doesn't seem too farfetched that a lack of (home) crowd could lead to a reduced home ground advantage.

If that's the case: are there teams that have a greater relative home advantage and that would possibly suffer more than others?
One way to look at it is Home Points Ratio, that is the share of the total points coming from home games. Looking at the Premier League so far this season, there's quite a spectrum:

Norwich have the greatest Home Points Ratio, some 71% of the total points coming from home games, the Yellows possibly having the most to lose from desolate home grounds.
Southampton, on the other hand, have the lowest Home Points Ratio, some 59% of the total points accumulated on the road.

Norwich

The Canaries create slightly below the average of shots and shots on target so far in the Premier League this season.
Only Aston Villa and Newcastle have conceded more shots and shots on target than Norwich so far in the Premier League this season.

Southampton

As indicated above, the Hampshire club have had greater luck on the road this season than at St Mary's.
Looking at away games specifically, only 4 teams have created more shots and only 5 teams have created more shots on target than the Saints so far this season.
Only 6 teams have conceded fewer shots and only 8 teams have conceded fewer shots on target on the road than the Saints so far this season.

Check out more Premier League stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Norwich have a relatively big advantage when playing at Carrow Road and may suffer more than most when crowds aren't allowed.
Southampton have some sort of strange disadvantage when playing at home but perform like a top third team on the road.
Betting Tip: Southampton -0.25 (AH).
Stake at 5/10 units.

Learn more about what a unit is.

Check out more odds on Norwich - Southampton here!