On Saturday, RB Leipzig host SC Paderborn at the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig.
RB Leipzig
Currently in 3rd spot, the RasenBallsport club have secured yet another go at European cup football; not too shabby for a franchise playing in NOFV-Oberliga Süd (the fifth tier of the German football league system) ten years ago. This season, RB Leipzig is one of four teams doing battle for three Champions League spots.
Statistics
Only Bayern Munich have created more shots and shots on target than Leipzig so far this season, Leipzig creating on average 16.45 shots and 6.62 shots on target per game. Only Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund have scored more goals than Leipzig so far this season, Leipzig scoring on average 2.55 goals per game.
Leipzig also concede on average 1.07 goals per game.
Looking at home games specifically, there's has been on average 3.64 goals scored in Leipzig's home games this season.
When facing bottom 6 teams at home so far this season, there's been on average 4.75 goals scored:
When facing bottom 6 teams at home so far this season, Leipzig have scored on average 4.25 goals but have also conceded goals in 50% of the games.
SC Paderborn 07
The North Rhine-Westphalia club is in deep trouble, sitting rock bottom of the table 8 points adrift Fortuna Dusseldorf at the relegation play-off spot.
Statistics
Despite the precarious position in the league table, all is not utterly dark in the attacking area.
5 teams have in fact created fewer shots than Paderborn so far this season, Paderborn creating on average 12.34 shots per game. 3 teams have created fewer shots on target than Paderborn so far this season, Paderborn creating on average 3.83 shots on target per game.
2 teams have scored fewer goals than Paderborn so far this season, Paderborn scoring on average 1.10 goals per game. Oddly enough, when facing top 6 teams on the road this season, Paderborn have scored on average 1.60 goals per game (including 2 goals against Bayer Leverkusen in August, 1 goal against Wolfsburg in August, no less than 3 goals against Borussia Dortmund in November and 2 goals against Bayern Munich in February).
At the other end of the pitch, things look rather bleak as well.
Only 4 teams have conceded more shots or shots on target than Paderborn so far this season, Paderborn conceding on average 14.66 shots and 5.38 shots on target per game while also conceding 2.10 goals per game.
When facing top 6 teams on the road this season, Paderborn have conceded on average 2.40 goals per game.
There's a really interesting quirk to Paderborn’s average total goals numbers this season. When facing bottom half teams, the average total goals per game is as low as they come. But when facing teams from the top half of the table the games are for the most part free scoring:
When facing top 6 teams, Paderborn have the highest total goals average in the league.
Check out more Bundesliga stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Leipzig have one of the highest total goals averages in the league when facing bottom half teams, especially at home.
Paderborn have one of the highest total goals averages in the league when facing top 6 teams.
My Betting Tip is Total Goals: Over 3.5.
Stake at 5/10 units.
