Relegation candidates SC Paderborn 07 host 2nd placed Borussia Dortmund at Benteler-Arena on Sunday.
SC Paderborn 07
The yo-yoing club from North Rhine-Westphalia is rock bottom in the league table, 8 points adrift Fortuna Dusseldorf in the relegation play-off spot and at least 1 point from this game could prove vital.
Statistics
Despite the precarious position in the league table, all is not dark in the attacking area.
6 teams have in fact created fewer shots at home than Paderborn so far this season, Paderborn creating on average 13.50 shots per game. 4 teams have created fewer shots on target at home than Paderborn so far this season, Paderborn creating on average 4.29 shots on target per game.
7 teams have scored fewer goals at home than Paderborn so far this season, Paderborn scoring on average 1.29 goals per game. Oddly enough, when entertaining top 6 teams at Benteler-Arena this season, Paderborn have scored on average 1.75 goals per game (including 2 goals against FC Bayern Munich in September, 2 goals against RB Leipzig in November, 1 goal against Bayer Leverkusen in January and 2 goals against Wolfsburg in February).
At the defensive department, things look rather dismal though.
No other team have conceded more shots or shots on target at home than Paderborn so far this season, Paderborn conceding on average 15.57 shots and 5.57 shots on target per game.
Only Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim have conceded more goals at home than Paderborn so far this season, Paderborn conceding on average 2.29 goals per game. When hosting top 6 teams at Benteler-Arena this season, Paderborn have conceded on average 3.50 goals per game.
Looking at home games solely, there has been on average 3.57 goals scored in Paderborn's home games this season.
When facing top 6 teams at Benteler-Arena so far this season, there's been on average 5.25 goals scored.
Looking at home games exclusively, there has been at least 3 goals scored in 71% of Paderborn's home games (10 of 14 games).
When facing top 6 teams at Benteler-Arena so far this season, there's been over 3 goals scored in 100% of the games (4 of 4 games).
Borussia Dortmund
After losing to league leaders Bayern Munich on Tuesday, Dortmund need to bounce right back if they still are to make some claim to the title this season. Also, the race for the Champions League spots look fierce and Bayer Leverkusen in 5th place a.k.a. Europa League spot is just 4 points behind Dortmund. So, 3 points from this game is really important anyway you look at it.
Statistics
Only 5 teams have created more shots on target on the road than Dortmund so far this season, Dortmund creating on average 4.64 shots on target per game. Only Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig have scored more goals on the road than Dortmund so far this season, Dortmund scoring on average 2.07 goals per game.
7 teams have conceded fewer goals on the road than Dortmund so far this season, Dortmund conceding on average 1.64 shots on target per game.
Looking at away games specifically, there has been on average 3.71 goals scored in Dortmund's away games this season.
When facing bottom half teams on the road so far this season, there's been on average 4.14 goals scored.
Looking at away games exclusively, there has been at least 3 goals scored in 79% of Dortmund's away games (11 of 14 games).
When facing bottom half teams away from home so far this season, there's been at least 3 goals scored in 86% of the games (6 of 7 games).
Check out more Bundesliga stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Both teams produce rather high scoring games, especially when facing top 6 teams and bottom half teams respectively. Both teams need 3 points from this game and I think we'll see an open game with chances created at both ends of the pitch.
For what it's worth: 5 of the 5 most recent games between the two teams have seen at least 3 goals scored (on average 5.6 goals scored).
My Betting Tip is Total Goals: Over 3.
Stake at 5/10 units.
More odds on SC Paderborn 07 - Borussia Dortmund here!
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