Brentford performing much better than the table would suggest (Outright)

At the turn of the millennium Brentford was a club in great predicament. After many years of economic austerity measures, the club was almost relegated to League Two in 2008.
However, somewhere around here the tide is also starting to turn. Supporter and billionaire Matthew Benham commence a series of loan fundings enabling a supporters trust to buy the club. Benham would eventually buy the club himself and adopt a different approach to managemant.
- Brentford can't win by outspending the competition so we have to out-think them. says Rasmus Ankersen, Co-Director of Football. Brentford has been buying cheap, young and smart, selling for near-maximum profit for quite a few years now. There's a section at the club dedicated to analytics, disecting facts and figures of potential signings, the team performance and also the opponents players and preformance.

Last season

For some years now, Brentford has been occupying a top half spot in the Championship and also begun the construction of the new Brentford Community Stadium, replacing the faithful old servant Griffin Park. Even though last season only resulted in a 11:th place, the actual performance had a sweet taste.
Only two teams created more shots in the Championship than Brentford last season. Only winners Norwich created more shots on target than Brentford last season.
Only Leeds conceded less shots in the Championship than Brentford last season. Only four teams conceded less shots on target than Brentford last season.

Squad status

As per usual, Brentford has been reaping the rewards of what they sow, selling no less than 6 of the 11 players with most minutes on the field last season.

The ones who left:

Daniel Bentley, 26 year old goalkeeper. Joined Championship rivals Bristol City.
Ezri Konsa, 21 year old central defender and English U21 international. Joined Premier League club Aston Villa.
Yoann Barbet, 26 year old central defender. Joined Championship rivals Queens Park Rangers.
Romaine Sawyers, 27 year old midfielder. Joined Championship rivals West Bromwich Albions.
Moses Odubajo, 26 year old midfielder. Joined Championship rivals Sheffield Wednesday.
Neal Maupay, 23 year old forward. Brentford's best goal scorer last season. Joined Premier League club Brighton.

The ones who joined:

David Raya, 23 year old goalkeeper joining from Blackburn where he's been first choice between the sticks the last two seasons.
Pontus Jansson, 28 year old central defender and Swedish international with several full seasons in Leeds.
Ethan Pinnock, 26 year old defender who was one of Barnsley's most influential players last season winning promotion to the Championship.
Mathias Jensen, 23 year old central midfielder and Danish U21 international. Missed most of last season due to injury and played only 6 gamed with Celta Vigo, joining the Spanish side after a couple of full seasons in Danish club Nordsjælland.
Christian Nørgaard, 25 year old central midfielder and former Danish U21 international. Had a hard time trying to break into the starting eleven at Italian side Fiorentina last season but have several full seasons in Danish Europa League subscribers Brøndby.
Joel Valencia, 24 year old attacking midfielder who played a full season for Polish champions Piast last season, scoring 6 goals and 4 assists.
Bryan Mbeumo, 20 yead old attacking midfielder/forward who enjoyed a full season in the French Ligue 2 club Troyes last season, scoring 10 goals.

The build-up to this season looks slightly different to me. Some of the signings are full-fledged and ready to make an impact now.

This season

Only 3 teams have created more shots than Brentford this season. Only West Bromwich have created more shots indside the penalty area than Brentford.
Only two teams have conceeded fewer shots and shots on target than Brentford this season.

The most significnt factor is perhaps keeping 24 year old Algerian playmaker Saïd Benrahma. He produced the most assists in the Championship last season with 14 assists and was also among the three players with most key passes in the Chamionship last season. He missed the last couple of games last season and most of pre-season but has slowly been introduced to the team again. Last week he played 82 minutes against Derby and well, he didn't lose his magic during the summer (for some Benrahma magic, start at 1:05!):

Surely, some time for adjustment and attunement for the team was to be expected. But in the emphatic 3-0 win against Derby things fell into place and the team clicked.
As I write, Brentford is in 14:th position in the league. However, there's only 3 points separating Brentford and Fulham in 6:th place. Excellent sites like Experimental 361 and Infogol also indicate that Brentford really should occupy a Top 6 spot based on performance and expected goals.

Check out more Championship stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Brentford has enjoyed sound and stable foundations and has performed at a high and steady level in the Championship for a couple of seasons now. There's a healthy business model at heart allowing young talents to grow and move on for big money.
Brentford had all the characteristics of a Top 6 team in the Championship last season, regardless of finishing in 11:th place. The club has continued to recruit in a smart and commited way this summer and I beleive the team has about the same or even a higher potential than a year ago. Brentford To Finish Top 6 at 3.40 seems like great value to me.
My Betting Tip is Brentford To Finish Top 6.
Stake at 10/10 units.
(I have previously placed a 8.75 unit bet on this very market in my sheet; I will now place an additional 1.25 unit bet to attain a total of 10 units.)

Check out more Championship odds here!