Can MIBR out perform recent results and take down Chaos?

MIBR

MIBR have been struggling to find their major winning form for a while now, however they are quite consistent when it comes to beating teams with a worse rank. After exiting the group stage of the ESL Road to Rio tournament with a 3-2 record with loses against Furia and Liquid, MIBR decided to make a change as they removed ‘meyern’ due to him not living up to the potential he showed during 2019. ‘trk’ has now replaced meyern in the starting roster and played his first match with the team against Furia where he underperformed, which is to be expected as he hasn’t had much time to settle into the team.

Now that MIBR have had 2 days off you would expect them to be well prepared for this match against Chaos. This match is extremely important for MIBR if they want to qualify and it will be the easier match they have as they also have to play Team Liquid, with this in mind you would expect them to take full advantage of this fact and make sure they are in a good position to qualify with a win over Chaos today.

Chaos

Chaos have been in a difficult position in terms of their roster as they have made 8 changes since the start of the year, and had little time to prepare for this tournament as they are only in this tournament as they replaced Bad News Bears. With a lot of these changes being downgrades, losing Smooya, their best player, as well as SicK who retired from competitive Counter Strike to start a career competing in Valorant.

The most recent changes happened this month with ‘cam’ being removed and replaced by ‘Xeppaa’. Chaos were also trialling ‘leaf’ but made the decision to play with ‘Jonji’ instead, this decision was made 10 days ago, showing how little time they have had as a 5 man roster. It is hard to think a team that has had to change so much so recently will be able to compete at the best of their ability, which is why they may struggle in some matches, like how only yesterday they lost to a team ranked 106 in the HLTV rankings. Although they lost to Keep the Comms up they did beat Liquid 2 days prior which is a very good result for them.

My Bet Reasoning

I still see many weaknesses to this Chaos roster and i'm not sold on them from 1 win against Liquid, we've seen an odds shift from 1.80 > 2.58 because of 1 result against Liquid, if they lost that map 2 to Liquid we see a very different price in this spot, I simply think there's too much value on here on MIBR with Chaos having no real punish pick.

Bet: MIBR -1.5 @ 2.58 - MIBR -2.5 Map 2 @ 1.97

League: Dreamhack Masters

Bookmaker: Pinnacle

Units: 1.5/3 - 1/3