Can Liquid outperform recent results and take beat a weak sided Chaos?

Liquid

Liquid have been struggling to find the results you would expect from the 6th Ranked team in the world, however they have now had 9 days to prepare for DreamHack Masters Spring so they should be ready to go up against Chaos. Liquid won’t be happy with their placement at ESL Road to Rio tournament, where they placed 4th, after losing to Furia and Cloud9, 2 teams you would expect them to beat.

People are still forgetting this exact team is a former #1 team in the world who was beating Astralis at the top of their peak. I still think individually this team is on a ridiculous level.

Chaos

Chaos have had less time than Liquid to prepare for this tournament as they replaced Bad News Bears, this already puts them at a disadvantage in this match. Another factor that will impact Chaos’ performance is the fact they have recently changed 2 players in their roster, ‘cam’ and ‘SicK’ has been removed from the starting roster and replaced with ‘leaf’ and ‘Xeppaa’. 6 days ago, ‘Leaf’ was removed from the roster for ‘jonji’. All these changes will result in Chaos struggling in this match as well as the fact they have had such a short amount of time to prepare for this match. Chaos have now made 8 changes since the start of this year, some of the changes they have made to the rosters could be considered downgrades.

My Bet Reasoning

I think Liquid are way too experienced for a close game here, recent Liquid results have led to a very nice price here on the -1.5, If this was sometime last year when they was in peak form I think we'd be looking at a 3u bet here.

With all the downgrades Chaos have made, I simply think the price is way too attractive here with the implied probability at 62%~

Bet: Liquid -1.5 @ 1.61

League: Dreamhack Masters

Bookmaker: bet365

Units: 1.5/3