Outright Betting Tips League Two - Colchester United

In 2007 Colchester United summed up the best season in the club’s history by finishing 10:th in The Championship. However, from that point results deteriorated at a steady rate and in 2016 Colchester was relegated to the fourth tier for the first time in 18 years.
But all is not lost. The surrounding conditions have been relatively stable with the same owner and chairman for more than 10 years now. Despite the gloomy days at Colchester Community Stadium, the owner have invested a fair amount of money in a new training ground and academy.

Patient chairman and coach reaping the rewards

John McGreal and Steve Ball have been coach and assistant coach since 2016. The two first seasons in charge resulted in mid table endings. Last season Colchester finished 8:th in League Two and this time around the performance was rather impressive.

Only 6 teams in League Two created more shots than Colchester last season. Only 4 teams created more shots on target. Colchester recorded 65 goals, scoring a mediocre 30% of the shots on target.
Colchester conceded the least amount of shots and the least amount of shots on target in the division last season. Conceding 53 goals (65% of the shots on target) was slightly alarming. However, this was very much due to injuries and lack of game time among the goalkeepers.

John McGreal talks a lot about the team and the style of play as a project now starting to settle:
- The ambition is to get this club out of this division and the way we play football isn’t going to change. [...] It’s a huge part of how Steve and I want to do things and the chairman has allowed us to implement that style. [...] Sometimes we leave ourselves two at the back because we want to get ourselves going forward and scoring goals.

There are two things Colchester need to adress if they want to improve on last season. They have to find some sort of stability and add more experience between the sticks. And they need to maintain and enhance the options going forward.

Squad status

Of the 11 players with most game time last season, 3 have left Colchester. The remaining squad accumulates ">69% of the league minutes last season, which is fairly stable figures in League Two.

The ones who left:

Sammie Szmodics, 23 year old attacking midfielder.
Frankie Kent, 23 year old central defender.
Brennan Dickenson, 26 year old left winger.

Indeed three key players from last season. However, this is part of Colchester’s business plan. Like Brentford and Barnsley, Colchester grow and/or identify talents selling them at the right time.

The ones who joins:

Dean Gerken, 33 year old goalkeeper returning to his boyhood club. Played many years in The Championship, now joining from Ipswich. Brings loads of experience and passion.
Omar Sowunmi, 23 year old central defender who spent a few seasons already in League Two and captained Yeovil. Tall and strong, scored several headers in pre-season. Rumor has it he’s also fastest in the squad over 20 meter.
Jevani Brown, 24 year old attacking midfielder who spent the last two seasons at Cambridge in League Two. Among the 8 players with most assist in League Two both seasons.
Luke Gambin, 26 year old left winger with lots of League Two experience.
Paris Cowan-Hall, 28 year old right winger with lots of seasons in League One and League Two.
Michael Fernandes, 20 year old winger/attacker from non-league side Farnborough. Had a trial at several Championship clubs and have made quite an impression in pre-season, both scoring and assisting.

To me it looks like Colchester have signed good and exciting replacements for the three key players leaving. Furthermore, Colchester have strengthened the goalkeeper area and also added to the options going forward.

- Expected transfers out. Well planned, early transfers, according to assistant coach Steve Ball who elaborates: - We believe we’ve recruited really well, we believe that potentially now we have an even better group of players. So expectations will be the same as last season, in and around the play-offs and possibly even better this season.

Start of the new season

The first match of the season for Colchester was a 1-1 draw at home to Port Vale. Colchester won the possession 60-40 and shots on target 4-1, indicating that it was an unlucky start.

More League Two statistics to be found here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Colchester’s performance last season smelled of Top 7 but a bad spell of injuries derailed the season in the spring. Three key players have left the club since but I recon they have been replaced in a planned and thoughtful manner. In addition Colchester have reinforced the goalkeeper area and the attacking options.
Colchester finished in 8:th place last season with an appetite for more. I find it really strange to find 1.83 for Colchester to finish top half when the squad is more versatile now and potentially slightly better than last season.
My Betting Tip is Colchester to Finish Top Half in League Two 2019/2020.
Stake at maximum 10/10 units.

League Two Odds to be found here!