Bournemouth host Chelsea at Dean Court on Saturday. I believe there's great value to be found in the cards market.
Bournemouth
The Cherries reside in 16th place, practically 3 points above the relegation zone. They have a tough slate of fixtures coming up, but claiming 6 points from the home games against Crystal Palace and Newcastle should be of the highest priority. Not risking any unnecessary injuries or suspensions would be Eddie Howe's most logical instructions in the games preceding those make-it-or-break-it six pointers.
Jefferson Lerma will most probably miss the game on Saturday due to injury, Lerma picking up the most yellow cards and the third-most fouls per game in Bournemouth so far this season.
Statistics
Only Liverpool have committed fewer fouls than Bournemouth so far in the Premier League this season, Bournemouth committing on average 9.22 fouls per game.
Looking at home games specifically, only Liverpool have committed fewer fouls than Bournemouth so far in the Premier League this season, Bournemouth committing on average 8.15 fouls per game at Dean Court.
Bournemouth also commit the second-lowest number of fouls in the Premier League when facing top half teams and top 5 teams so far this season:
Form
Bournemouth's 3 most recent games have seen a total of 18 yellow cards (on average 6 yellow cards per game).
However, this includes:
Home game against Aston Villa officiated by Anthony Taylor.
Away game against Sheffield United officiated by Jonathan Moss.
Away game against Burnley officiated by Mike Dean.
Both Aston Villa and Sheffield United as well as Burnley are among the 5 teams committing the highest number of fouls when facing bottom half teams and bottom 5 teams.
Both Taylor and Moss as well as Dean are among the 9 referees displaying the highest average number of yellow cards in the Premier League so far this season (Taylor and Dean are among 4 referees displaying the highest average number of yellow cards in the Premier League so far this season).
Chelsea
The Blues occupy 4th spot, 3 points ahead of Manchester United. They have the FA-cup round of 16 clash against Liverpool coming up in just a few days and the Champions League return game to Bayern Munich in 2 weeks’ time. Frank Lampard's most logical instructions before the Bournemouth game would be not risking any unnecessary injuries or suspensions.
N'Golo Kanté will miss the game due to injury, Kanté picking up the most fouls per game in Chelsea so far this season.
Statistics
Only 8 teams have committed fewer fouls than Chelsea so far in the Premier League this season, Chelsea committing on average 10.30 fouls per game.
Chelsea commit the lowest number of fouls in the Premier League when facing bottom 5 teams so far this season:
Form
Chelsea's 3 most recent league games have seen a total of 14 yellow cards (on average 4.67 yellow cards per game).
However, this includes:
Away game against Leicester officiated by Lee Mason.
Home game against Manchester United officiated by Anthony Taylor.
Home game against Tottenham officiated by Michael Oliver.
Fierce games against top 5 rivals and both Leicester and Manchester United are among the teams committing the highest number of fouls when facing top half teams and top 5 teams.
Both Mason and Taylor are among the 8 referees displaying the highest average number of yellow cards in the Premier League so far this season.
Referee
Referee on Saturday is Andre Marriner. Leaving out umpires officiating only 1 game so far this season, Marriner is the referee in the Premier League displaying the lowest average number of cards per game. So far this season, Marriner is handing out on average 2.40 yellow cards per game (24.33 booking points per game). Last season, only 4 other referees handed out less yellow cards per games than Marriner, the gentle Birmingham son handing out on average 2.70 yellow cards per game last season (29.81 booking points per game).
For what it's worth: the fourth official on Saturday is Graham Scott (Scott displaying the third-lowest average numbers of cards per game when officiating games this season) and the VAR official on Saturday is Paul Tierney (Tierney displaying the fourth-lowest average numbers of cards per game when officiating games this season).
Check out more Premier League stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Both teams have a recent history of committing a really low number of fouls, especially when facing top teams and bottom teams respectively.
The referee is averaging a relatively low number of cards when officiating games in the Premier League.
I believe that the yellow cards received by both teams in recent games conceal the fact that Bournemouth and Chelsea do commit relatively low number of fouls, especially when facing top teams and bottom teams respectively. Both teams also have much bigger fishes to fry in upcoming games than the opposition on Saturday.
Furthermore, 3 of the 4 most recent games between the two teams at Dean Court have seen under 2.5 cards.
My Betting Tip is Total Cards: Under 2.5.
Stake at maximum 10/10 units.
I find good value in 'Total Cards: Under 3.5' at around 1.70 as well. However, I recon the value is even greater in 'Total Cards: Under 2.5' and I chose to place a maximum stake bet on that one despite the risk being obviously higher.
