Southampton host Aston Villa at St Mary's Stadium on Saturday.
In this particular football betting tip, I fancy the total goals market and I believe that the odds market underestimate the prospect of goals.
Southampton
The Saints are aiming for a top half spot. With Ralph Hasenhüttl's men practically 4 points adrift Arsenal in 10th the Ward-Prowse-Ings battering ram will be knocking heavily on the Villain's defence down the middle while also exposing the home team's Achilles' heel: attacks down the wings.
Statistics
Only 7 teams have created more shots on target than Southampton so far in the Premier League this season, Southampton creating on average 4.50 shots on target per game (which is above the league average of 4.37 shots on target per game).
Only 7 teams have conceded more shots on target than Southampton so far in the Premier League this season, Southampton conceding on average 4.81 shots on target per game (which is also above the league average of 4.37 shots on target per game).
Three’s been on average 3.38 goals scored in Southampton's home games this season, 69% of the home games adding up more than 2.50 goals.
Form
Southampton have mustered 6 points in the last 5 games, scoring 7 goals and conceding 10 goals in the process (3 or more goals scored in 4 of 5 games).
Looking at the last 4 games, Southampton have created on average 4.25 shots on target per game - above the average attacking numbers in the league right now. In the same time span, the Hampshire team have conceded on average 4.75 shots on target per game - also above the average in the league right now.
Aston Villa
No other team have conceded more goals in the Premier League this season than the Claret & Blue. With Dean Smith's team only one point above the relegation zone, there's only one road to safety: outscoring the opposition.
Statistics
Only 8 teams have created more shots on target than Aston Villa so far in the Premier League this season, Aston Villa creating on average 4.38 shots on target per game (which is above the league average of 4.37 shots on target per game).
Only Newcastle have conceded more shots on target than Aston Villa so far in the Premier League this season, the West Midlands outfit conceding on average 5.42 shots on target per game (which is also above the league average of 4.37 shots on target per game).
There’s been on average 3.23 goals scored in Aston Villa's away games this season, 77% of the away games adding up more than 2.50 goals.
Form
Astn Villa have gathered 4 points in the last 5 games, scoring 7 goals and conceding 13 goals in the process (3 or more goals scored in 4 of 5 games).
Looking at the last 4 games, Aston Villa have created on average 4.25 shots on target per game - above the average attacking numbers in the league right now. In those games, Aston Villa have conceded on average 5.00 shots on target per game - also above the average in the league right now.
Check out more Premier League stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Both teams create and concede relatively high numbers of shots on target. The goals scored in Southampton's home games and Aston Villa's away games so far this season also suggest we'll be seeing a handful of goals in this one.
My Betting Tip is Over 3 Goals.
Stake at 7.5/10 units.
