Luton Town - Cardiff City: Surprisingly solid away team

Cardiff City travel east to face Luton Town at Kenilworth Road on Saturday.
I believe the odds market vastly overestimate the prospect of a goal to be scored by the home team.

Luton Town

The Hatters are enduring a troubled season, Graeme Jones' team glued to the bottom of the table with 24 points from 30 games.

Statistics

Only Charlton have created fewer shots than Luton so far in the Championship this season, Luton creating on average 9.83 shots per game. No other team have created fewer shots on target than Luton so far in the Championship this season, Luton creating on average 3.03 shots on target per game.

At Kenilworth Road, the numbers look slightly better but still rather dreadful. Only Charlton and Huddersfield have created fewer shots at home than Luton so far in the Championship this season, Luton creating on average 11.36 shots per game. Only 4 teams have created fewer shots on target at home than Luton so far in the Championship this season, the Bedfordshire side creating on average 3.64 shots on target per game.

Luton have had an absurd efficiency in front of goal so far this season, scoring a fantastic 45% of the shots on target at home.
In the last 10 Championship seasons, only 4 teams have finished the season with a greater shoot percentage than 40% at home: Derby in 2014/2015, Wolverhampton in 2017/2018 and West Bromwich and Sheffield United in 2018/2019 - all of them finishing in the top third of the table and two of them gaining promotion to the Premier League.
I find it highly unlikely that Luton will repeat such a feature. The most likely scenario, I would argue, is a drop in shoot percentage for the remainder of the season.

Form

Looking at the last 4 games, Luton have created on average 7.75 shots per game - the second-worst attacking numbers in the league right now. In the same time span, Luton have created on average 2.25 shots on target per game - the worst attacking numbers in the league right now.

If you speak the language of Expected Goals, Luton's 4 most recent games look like this:
Luton created 1.2 xG against Birmingham and scored 1 goal.
Luton created 1.0 xG against Nottingham and scored 1 goal.
Luton created 0.8 xG against Derby but scored 3 (!) goals.
Luton created 0.5 xG against West Brom and scored 0 goals.
An average of 0.87 xG created per game and a downward trend.

Cardiff City

The Bluebirds reside in 12th place with 43 points from 30 games. Neil Harris replaced Neil Warnock as manager on 16 November 2019.

Statistics

Looking at the season so far, Cardiff have conceded above the average number of shots per game but below the average numbers of shots on target per game.

Form

Looking at the last 4 games, Cardiff have conceded on average 2.25 shots on target per game - the second-best defensive numbers in the league right now.

In terms of Expected Goals, Cardiff's 4 most recent games look like this:
Cardiff conceded 0.8 xG against Swansea and conceded 0 goal.
Cardiff conceded 1.9 xG against Birmingham but conceded 1 goal.
Cardiff conceded 2.3 xG against West Brom but conceded 1 goal.
Cardiff conceded 0.4 xG against Reading but conceded 1 goal.
Birmingham and West Brom produce above the average number of shots on target in recent weeks, but Cardiff's defence put up a resolute display.
Swansea and Reading produce below the average number of shots on target in recent weeks, and Cardiff have kept the threat to a minimum.

Neil Harris

One of the main points in this betting tip is that Cardiff is not the same team under Neil Harris than it was under Neil Warnock earlier this season.
Harris embrace an aggressive, well organised and direct style of play where attack is one of the best forms of defence.
Harris led Millwall to promotion from League One in the 2017–18 season. In the first season back in the Championship, Millwall conceded below the average number of shots on target and the subsequent season only Premier League promotees Leeds and Sheffield United conceded fewer shots on target than Millwall.
I'm rather confident that we're seeing a transformation under Harris, making Cardiff's defence indeed more aggressive and well organised.

Under Warnock, Cardiff conceded above the average number of shots on target in the league trending upward. Under Harris, Cardiff concede below the average number of shots on target in the league trending downward.

Check out more Championship stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Luton is one of the teams creating the fewest shots and shots on target in the Championship, recent numbers cement these figures.
Cardiff have been displaying one of the best defensive numbers in the league in recent weeks, the team specialize in Neil Harris' aggressive and well organised style of play.
I believe that the goals scored by Luton in recent games and the goals conceded by Cardiff during most of the season conceal the fact Luton does create very little going forward and Cardiff have been improving massively in the defensive area as of late. My firm view is that the probability of Luton scoring a goal on Saturday is 50% or presumably even below that. To be able to bet on Luton not scoring at 3.40 is massive value to me.
My Betting Tip is Total Goals by Home Team: Under 0.5.
Stake at maximum 10/10 units.

I find good value in Total Goals by Home Team: Under 1.5 at around 1.50 as well. However, the value is even greater in Total Goals by Home Team: Under 0.5 and I chose to place a maximum stake bet on that one despite the risk being obviously higher.

Check out more odds on Luton Town - Cardiff City here!