Australian Open Men - Third Thiem lucky?

The first Grand Slam of the year comes to an end and yesterday, we witnessed a couple of first time winners in Sofia Kenin and Nikola Mektic. In today's finals, three more players have the chance to win their first major (as a pro) as Max Purcell and Luke Saville face Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury in doubles and Dominic Thiem takes on heavy tournament favorite Novak Djokovic in singles.

Cool Conditions

The Austrian already secured us an outright winner as he won the first quarter in what was arguably the best match of the tournament against Rafael Nadal. A new surface and rather cool weather led to one of the slowest Australian Opens ever. Conditions won't be any faster in today's final which will start at 7:30pm Melbourne time. It's supposed to cool down to 20°C by the start of the match.

While court and conditions play into the hands of Thiem, the third time major finalist has been on court almost six hours longer than his opponent. That adds to the weird scheduling which allowed Djokovic one day more of rest. I don't want to stress fatigue too much here as Thiem is in his prime and one of the fittest players on tour, but in what could be a long match, it might be a factor in a potential fourth and fifth set.

Different Paths

It's fair to say Djokovic hasn't really been tested so far here in Melbourne. Jan-Lennard Struff was the only player that took a set off him in round one. Ito, Nishioka, Schwartzman and Raonic just aren't close to his level right now. The Serb then survived a minor scare in his semifinal against a clearly hampered Roger Federer when he was down 1-4 0-40, but managed to run him down and win the first set in a tiebreak. Federer tried to keep points short, so there was no game flow whatsoever.

This will definitely change in today's final and it's Thiem who should be well-prepared for long rallies. The Austrian is coming off two heavy tests against Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev, defeating both of them in a fourth set tiebreak. It's also notable that he won all five tiebreaks played in these matches. The last time he met Djokovic, he also won the deciding tiebreak. So while there are still some signs of choking occasionally, it's safe to say he's become a lot more clutch over the years.

His first three wins against Djokovic all came on clay, but the Austrian finally showed he can also keep up with the best on hard courts by the end of last year. He won the ATP 500 events in Beijing and Vienna before finishing runner-up in the World Tour Finals. In London, he also beat Djokovic for the first time on hards, 6-7 6-3 7-6.

Retrieving Rhythm

Just like Wimbledon belongs to Roger Federer and Roland Garros never saw a player as dominant as Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic always brings his best tennis to Australia. It has been his eighth semifinal appearance this year and the seven times prior, the Serb also won the tournament. So there's no doubt he enters this final as the favorite.

Anyway, I don't think it will be as one-sided as many expect it to be. Dominic Thiem showed some brilliant tennis over the last few months and his topspin as well as his flat-hitting backhand find the perfect conditions at Rod Laver Arena by night. If he wants to keep this close, he desperately needs a good start though as Djokovic might take advantage of the Austrian's heavy feet the longer the match goes.

Thiem's game plan should be to come out firing. Despite his rather long matches, he's the one in a better rhythm right now. Having two days off might feel a little weird as well as pros usually compete every other day. If Djokovic starts slowly as he did against Federer, Thiem should at least be able to win a set or two. Therefore, I'll take two bets: Thiem to win the first set and the match to go over 37.5 games.