Leicester City host Chelsea at King Power Stadium early on Saturday.
It's quite hard to get a grip on this game, feels like it could go either way in terms of three-way and under/over.
But; in this particular football betting tip I fancy the anytime goalscorer market. Read on for reasoning and prediction!
Leicester City
The Foxes sit in 3rd place, only 3 points behind Manchester City in 2nd place and with an impressive 14-point gap down to the chasing pack outside the Champions League spots.
Statistics
Only 4 teams have created more shots and shots on target than Leicester so far in the Premier League this season, Leicester creating on average 13.96 shots and 5.50 shots on target per game.
Only 4 teams have conceded fewer shots than Leicester so far in the Premier League this season, Leicester conceding on average 10.54 shots per game. Only 5 teams have conceded fewer shots on target than Leicester so far in the Premier League this season, the East Midlands club conceding on average 3.75 shots on target per game. The trend is worrying though, as we'll explore in just a moment.
Form
Looking at the last 4 games, Leicester have created on average 7.75 shots on target per game - the best attacking numbers in the league right now. In the same time span, Brendan Rodgers's team have conceded on average 4.75 shots on target per game - above the average in the league right now. Troubling defensive numbers I would argue since those games include matches against bottom half teams Newcastle, Burnley and West Ham.
Looking at the season so far, Leicester concede on average 1.00 goals per game at home. However, in the 4 most recent games at King Power Stadium, Leicester have conceded on average 2.00 goals per game.
Chelsea
The Blues hold 4th place, 8 behind Leicester and 6 points ahead of Manchester United, Tottenham and Wolverhampton.
Statistics
Only Manchester City have created more shots than Chelsea so far in the Premier League this season, Chelsea creating on average 16.67 shots per game. Only Manchester City and Liverpool have created more shots on target than Chelsea so far in the Premier League this season, Frank Lampard's men creating on average 5.88 shots on target per game.
Only Liverpool have conceded fewer shots than Chelsea so far in the Premier League this season, Chelsea conceding on average 8.63 shots per game. Only Manchester City have conceded fewer shots on target than Chelsea so far in the Premier League this season, the Fulham outfit conceding on average 3.00 shots on target per game.
Form
Looking at the last 4 games, Chelsea have created on average 6.25 shots on target per game - one of the best attacking numbers in the league right now. In the same time span, Chelsea have conceded on average 2.75 shots on target per game - the second-best defensive numbers in the league right now.
Looking at the season so far, Chelsea score on average 2.08 goals per game on the road.
Analysis
Considering Leicester's recent slump in defensive numbers and Chelsea's steady output of shots and shots on target, I think that Chelsea scoring is the way to address this game.
In addition, Chelsea have a better shots on target difference on the road against top 5 teams (and top half teams) than Leicester have at home against the same category of opposition:
In the attacking department, Chelsea will most definitely miss Christian Pulisic due to injury. Tammy Abraham and Olivier Giroud are doubtful.
Enter the overall best performing Chelsea player of the season so far: Willian (highest average rating at WhoScored.com).
Of the five Chelsea players creating the most shots per game inside the penalty area, Pulisic will be out and possibly also Abraham (and if he does play, I doubt he will be in for yet another supernatural display). Pedro have only featured 7 minutes in the Premier League since November and I doubt he'll get the nod here.
In the absence of Abraham and Pulisic, I reckon that Willian (and possibly also Mason Mount if he does start) will take an even greater part in the attacking game. When Willian is priced at 5.40 (and Mason Mount at 4.80) - that's where I find value in this game.
Check out more Premier League stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Leicester's defence has been a bit shaky as of late and the home team doesn't have a great performance record against top 5 teams this season.
Chelsea create the second-most shots and shots on target in the league and do display solid numbers against top 5 teams. In the absence of the obvious goal scorers I think that the odds for Willian to score is too high right now.
My Betting Tip is Anytime Goalscorer: Willian.
Stake at 2.5/10 units.
