Crystal Palace - Sheffield United: A shortage of goals written in the stars

Crystal Palace host Sheffield United at Selhurst Park on Saturday 1 February.
In this particular football betting tip I fancy the total goals market and I believe that the odds market overestimate the prospect of goals. I expect the odds on the under-markets to drop slowly between now and kick-off, so get on board sooner rather than later!
Read on for reasoning and prediction!

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Crystal Palace

The Eagles are stalling a bit after a surprisingly good start to the season. Roy Hodgson's team dropped to 9th place and will most probably have a hard time defending a top half spot for the remainder of the season.

Statistics

No other team have created fewer shots than Crystal Palace so far in the Premier League this season, Crystal Palace creating on average 9.68 shots per game. Only Burnley and Bournemouth have created fewer shots on target than Crystal Palace so far in the Premier League this season, Crystal Palace creating on average 3.23 shots on target per game.

Looking at the season so far, Crystal Palace concede around the average number of shots and shots on target in the Premier League. However, recent numbers project that the South London club is raising the defensive standards quite a bit and I will elaborate on that in a few moments.

Three’s been on average 1.82 goals scored in Crystal Palace's home games this season, 82% of the home games adding up less than 2.50 goals.

It sure looks like goalkeeper Vicente Guaita have found his feet after joining in 2018 from Spanish club Getafe (where he signed off with a 75% saving percentage). Guaita has ousted Wales' first-choice goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey, keeping a clean sheet in 30% of the games so far this season (40% at Selhurst Park!). Guaita has saved 75% of the faced shots on target so far this season (80% at Selhurst Park!), the best numbers in the league.

Form

Crystal Palace have mustered 5 points in the last 5 games, scoring 5 goals and conceding 5 goals in the process (under 2.5 goals scored in 4 of 5 games).
Looking at the last 4 games, Crystal Palace have created on average 3.00 shots on target per game - one of the worst attacking numbers in the league right now. In the same time span, Roy Hodgson's team have conceded on average 3.75 shots on target per game - below the average in the league right now.

Overall, Crystal Palace tend to keep the total number of shots on target created and conceded down. Strong defensive numbers indeed I would argue since the 4 games were against attack minded Southampton, Norwich, Arsenal and Manchester City.

Sheffield United

The Blades carry on their impressive return to the top tier of the English football league system. Chris Wilder's squad barricade 6th spot, runaway league leaders Liverpool alone conceding fewer goals up to now.

Statistics

Only Crystal Palace and Newcastle have created fewer shots on the road than Sheffield United so far in the Premier League this season, Sheffield United creating on average 7.91 shots per game. Only Burnley have created fewer shots on target on the road than Sheffield United so far in the Premier League this season, Sheffield United creating on average 2.55 shots on target per game.

Only 8 teams have conceded fewer shots on the road than Sheffield United so far in the Premier League this season, Sheffield United conceding on average 13.64 shots per game. Only Liverpool, Wolverhampton and Manchester United have conceded fewer shots on target on the road than Sheffield United so far in the Premier League this season, the Yorkshire outfit conceding on average 3.82 shots on target per game.

There’s been on average 2.00 goals scored in Sheffield United's away games this season, 82% of the away games adding up less than 2.50 goals.

Goalkeeper Dean Henderson have kept a clean sheet in 38% of the games so far this season, the best numbers in the Premier League. The young England U21 keeper has saved 72% of the faced shots on target so far this season (74% on the road), one of the best numbers in the league.

Form

Sheffield United have amassed 7 points in the last 5 games, scoring 3 goals and conceding 5 goals in the process (under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of 5 games).
Looking at the last 4 games, Sheffield United have created on average 2.25 shots on target per game - one of the worst attacking numbers in the league right now. In the same time span, Sheffield United have conceded on average 3.75 shots on target per game - below the average in the league right now.

Overall, Sheffield United tend to keep the total number of shots on target created and conceded at a minimum. Excellent defensive numbers in particular I would say: those 4 games include away games to Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal!

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Conclusion & Betting Tips

Both teams display a relatively cautious attacking game. In the last few weeks both teams also put on show a resolute defensive game. Basically every single number I dig up suggest there may be a shortage of goals in this one.
My Betting Tip is Under 2.25 Goals.
Stake at 7.5/10 units.

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