Australian Open Women - Good spirits giving Ajla a good chance to advance

The Australian Open are well underway and after the first day got rained out for the most part, we had eighty-eight (88!) singles matches yesterday. To catch every single result, make sure to check this wonderful thread:

Bagels and Breadsticks

Now that almost every player got used to the new courts, it's time to preview some of these individual matches. On the women's side, there have been some pretty straightforward results so far. 84 of the 130 sets played ended in 9 games or less. So while betting the under would have made you profit across round one matches, we even had a rare three set under between Garbine Muguruza and Shelby Rogers. The Spaniard completely turned that match around and won 0-6 6-1 6-0.

Her second round opponent will be fan favorite Ajla Tomljanovic. The Aussie with Croatian roots caused some one-way traffic herself as she demolished #31 seed Anastasija Sevastova 6-1 6-1. Tomljanovic has been extremely clutch throughout the match and saved all of Sevastova's seven break points. Especially when her first serve went in, she put on a clinic and won 80% of the points. Even though Sevastova has not been on the very top of her game, that first round win was impressive.

Garbine Muguruza had a few more difficulties on serve. She only saved one of Rogers' five break chances and played an erratic first set. At 0-5, she called for the doctor and had her blood pressure checked. Muguruza stated after the match that she "wasn't feeling at [her] best at all". Presumably she's still fighting with the viral illness she picked up last week which also forced her to withdraw from her quarterfinal in Hobart.

Momentum obviously matters a lot in tennis, particularly after one-sided sets, and after Rogers wasn't able to build on her 6-0 lead, the American got more and more tensed herself. Her unforced errors increased and she was never able to pick up the form from the first set again.

Advantage Ajla

I do not want to discount Muguruza's fighting spirit and it takes a lot to recover from a first set bagel like that, but in my opinion, Tomljanovic's performance was even more impressive. The girlfriend of Matteo Berrettini confirmed her good form and has always loved playing at her chosen home. She only lost in close matches to Karolina Pliskova and Simona Halep so far this season and also seems in a great mood, which showed in her post match press conference when she handled even the stupidest questions with a smile.

Just like Shelby Rogers, Tomljanovic is more of a hitter. The difference is that the Australian is more consistent. So it will take a lot more out of Muguruza's body to get through Ajla who will also have the crowd behind her quite a bit. In what could potentially be a close match, that's an important factor as well.

While there are some doubts remaining re the Spaniard's physical condition, I would not have had her the favorite anyway on current form. If Tomljanovic continues to hit the ball so well and step up on big points, I do think she stands a good chance of reaching the third round here and I'm happy to bet her as the underdog.