Can Andy make it this time?
Andy Reid took over the Chiefs in 2013. Since then, their record is 77-35 (.688). They ended all seven seasons with winning record and missed playoffs only once. That is a very impressive resume, but with one major flaw - no Superbowl appearance. And last week it looked like they are going to fail again. Everything fell so nicely in place for the Chiefs, before the game vs Houston. Patriots got eliminated in the wildcard round. Then Titans did them another favor by beating the Baltimore Ravens, securing the home-field advantage for the Chiefs until the end of the playoffs. Then the game started and the Texans came out guns blazing. Jumped out into a three-touchdown lead in the 1st quarter already and held a 24-0 lead, early in the second quarter. But if there's a team that has enough firepower to claw their way back from such a deficit, it's the Chiefs and they proved it. Mahomes showed why he's one of the most talented passers in the league, leading his team to a comeback 51-31 win.
That win had to be a major morale boost for the Kansas City team. I think they believe nobody can stop them now. But I would tread carefully if I'd be in their place. Titans are one of those teams that timed their form to perfection and are playing their best football at the moment, building additional momentum each week. They kinda remind me to some of those NY Giants teams that won Superbowl couple years back. And not to forget, they already lost to this team late in the regular season.
Mythbusters
Titans are kinda defying the "rules" of modern football. All the experts are saying that this is a passing league now and that the running back position is not that important. But Patriots and the Ravens might tell you how stupid that is after Derrick Henry steamrolled them for 377 yards on whooping 64 carries (32 per game!). Coach Mike Vrabel and his staff did an amazing job with this team. Playing to the strengths of their personnel and hiding some of the weaknesses by playing some tough, disciplined football.
They have couple of injury problems thought. Jack Conklin is a true game-time decision, after suffering a mid-week injury. It would be a massive blow for the offense, considering that they need all their best man up front to run the ball with as much success as they did in previous two weeks and Conklin is definitely one of their best. Defensively, Rashaan Evans, Jaylon Brown and Adoree Jackson are all questionable but are expected to play. Jackson might draw a very difficult assignment of shadowing Tyreek Hill, something he didn't do very well in week 10, allowing 11 catches for 157 and a touchdown.
Chiefs vs Titans best bet
After getting burned badly by the Titans last week, I'm leaning towards them covering +7 in this one, but not enough to make the play. I think there are some nice opportunities in the player props market. Like AJ Brown going under with his receiving yards. Linemakers are still giving him respect for having some great games at the end of the regular season, but he hasn't proved himself against some top passing defenses yet. He got shut down by both Patriots and Ravens, catching two balls for 13 yards total in the playoffs. Also, he was the victim of run-heavy offense.
The second bet that I like is Ryan Tannehill over rushing yards. Although he had 10 rushing attempts in these playoffs, opponents really did a good job at containing him and limited him to 2.4 yards per carry. Chiefs, having some issues with defending the run (29th in the NFL), might be so focused on stopping Derrick Henry, that they'll give some opportunities to Tannehill on zone-read plays, where he might get 5-10 yard carries by design, not just scrambling when the pocket brakes down. I'm also adding Hill over because Titans simply don't have a player to match up well against him. And Damien Williams over receiving yards vs the team that has issues with covering the running backs (2nd worst). Especially with the workload, he got last week (almost 100% of the snaps) and it seems like LeSean McCoy is still injured.
