Australian Open Women - Outright Preview: Same procedure as every Slam

This is it, the Australian Open are going to start tonight! For a detailed breakdown of the conditions, please make sure to read my men's outright preview. Summarized, the weather should be alright now. Thunderstorms and rain cleared the haze for a good part. I still suggest to stay on top of weather forecasts this upcoming fortnight. But now let's preview the women's draw in which, just like in every recent Grand Slam, anything is possible. The last 12 majors produced 12 different winners. Hint: We are looking to make that 13/13!

1st quarter

Ashleigh Barty just accentuated her standing as world #1, winning the Premier event in Adelaide. A whole nation hopes for her to finally end the drought of winning the home Slam. The last Australian who won it was Chris O'Neil back in 1978. After stumbling into the season with a loss against Jennifer Brady, Barty got better from match to match last week, so she will definitely be one of the top contenders. She should get past Tsurenko and Peterson in her first two matches to set up a first real test against red-hot Elena Rybakina. The Kazakh also comes off a tournament win in Hobart and reached the final the week before in Shenzhen. Despite playing a lot of matches that early in the season, she might be a dark horse going into the Aussie.

If Barty gets out it, Alison Riske, Julia Goerges or Petra Martic will be waiting in round four. Since I'm not convinced by the early season form of the two latter, a rematch of last year's round four match at Wimbledon might be shaping up. Riske upset Barty 3-6 6-2 6-3 and showed how much she improved physically and mentally over the last year or so. The American is ranked just inside the top 20 now and is looking to do more damage here.

There are a lot of big hitters in the first quarter and especially in the second eighth of the draw. We have #7 Petra Kvitova and #10 Madison Keys as the top seeds and it will be hard to stop any of the two on a quick hard court. Ekaterina Alexandrova however might cause problems for Kvitova in round three. The Russian, who is based in Prague and also has a Czech coach, won the first tournament of the season in Shenzhen before having a week off last week. I consider that a perfect build-up going into a Grand Slam.

So while the Alexandrova-Kvitova match should be an interesting one, Maria Sakkari will most likely struggle to find the right answers against big-hitting Madison Keys in a potential third round match. Keys made the final at the Premier event in Brisbane and also took last week off. Consistency is what the American struggled the most with over the course of her career. Anyway, her form in Brisbane has been exceptional and if she can carry it into the Australian Open, I really like her to go far here.

2nd quarter

The first quarter involved three of the five tournament winners in 2020 and the second quarter will have another one. Not only did she win the ASB Classic in Auckland two weeks ago, she also is the most successful player of the Open Era and this year's Australian Open betting favorite at the age of 38: Serena Williams. You can get odds of 5.00 on her to win the Australian Open. Serena is still able to hit through anyone, but to me, she's a bit overpriced considering it's now three years since her last Grand Slam title.

Naomi Osaka, #3 seed and second favorite at odds of 9.00 also lurks in this quarter, so there might be one-way traffic in the early rounds. I only really see them getting challenged in round four when Osaka is projected to play Sofia Kenin and Williams awaits a striking contest with Dayana Yastremska. If the Ukrainian can conserve her form of last week, I consider her a threat, but she has to go through Caroline Wozniacki and Johanna Konta first. Not the easiest road for a volatile youngster. The rising star might end Wozniacki's career here though as this will be the Dane's last tournaments. Make sure to tune in to this potential second round match for a heavy contrast in styles and one more appreciation for one of the defining players of the last decade.

3rd quarter

With the three betting favorites (Williams, Osaka and Barty) located in the top half, I'm looking to find value in the third and fourth quarter. Besides the two top seeds #4 Simona Halep and #6 Belinda Bencic, we have a lot of streaky players in the third. Anett Kontaveit, Donna Vekic, Aryna Sabalenka, Elise Mertens, Karolina Muchova and Danielle Rose Collins are all capable of going on a nice little run here.

Especially Collins is really thriving Down Under. She reached the semifinal here last year and her fitness trainer / boyfriend is Australian, so it feels like home fer her. The American is playing some inspiring tennis so far in 2020 as she reached the quarter- and semifinal of the Premier events in Brisbane and Adelaide. However, she has to deal with players who push her to the limit in Yulia Putintseva or Su-Wei Hsieh in round two as well as Simona Halep in round three. Even if she gets past the Romanian, it will be hard for her to carry that form into week two as rheumatoid arthritis can cause different body conditions every day. Since her odds dropped quite a bit after her recent success in Australia, I will pass on her.

It's a tortuous path for the quarter's top seed Simona Halep. A potential third round clash with Collins would be the toughest one across the board. Even her first round match against Jennifer Brady will be tricky. With that many obstacles in her way, I'm not looking to back her on a presumably quick surface. In the other section of the Collins-Halep eighth, Elise Mertens and Karolina Muchova should battle for a spot in the last 16. I low-key like Muchova's game and at 15.00 to win the quarter, she might be an option. For the time being, I will pass though as I'm not exactly sure what her form looks like.

Belinda Bencic gave us great pleasure last September when she won her quarter at the US Open. She has a feasible draw and initially faces Schmiedlova and Samsonova/Ostapenko. The latter would have made the list of players who can go on a run here as well, but the tragic loss of her father last week puts me off. So while Bencic should make the third round, there will be either Veronika Kudermetova or Anett Kontaveit waiting for the Swiss. From what I've seen from her so far this year, this could already be the end of her Australian Open campaign.

My outright pick will be in the other eighth and it's Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian suffered the same fate as Ostapenko last November, but seems to have recovered as far as that's possible. She recently revealed that her dad wanted her "to be number one" and I think she can gain motivation from that. In my opinion, she possesses all the tools. Donna Vekic would be her projected third round opponent and while I also like the Croat, she just lacks that bit of extra power compared to Sabalenka. If Halep makes it out of the other eighth, Sabalenka won't be scared either as she just defeated her 6-4 6-2 last week in Adelaide.

4th quarter

While I liked quite a few longshots in the third quarter, the fourth is by far the weakest quarter in my view. Almost every seed is vulnerable, but the most dangerous unseeded players got placed elsewhere in the draw.

No.2 seed Karolina Pliskova won the first WTA Premier event of the year in Brisbane and her wins against Osaka and Keys were impressive, but she often struggles against more versatile players. Her path holds a lot of players of that type in Siegemund, Pavlyuchenkova and Vondrousova/Kerber. The Australian Open are Pliskova's best Grand Slam over the last three years regarding results, but looking at her opponents, she only beat big hitters for the most part. My concern is that one of the players mentioned catches her off-guard, so I lay off.

The other eighth has #5 Elina Svitolina as the top seed. The Ukrainian got demolished 1-6 1-6 by Danielle Collins in her one and only match this year. She does have a feasible draw, but I want to see some form first before betting her. Like I said, there aren't too many terrifying players in the quarter, so I also don't see who should stop Amanda Anisimova and Kiki Bertens before their potental third round match.

Anisimova just got over the line against Genie Bouchard in Auckland before losing 1-6 1-6 to Serena. Bertens' form looks slightly superior to me as she only lost to Osaka in Brisbane after beating Yastremska and Kontaveit.

Anyway, there's not much between the two, just like in the other eighth between Vondrousova and an ailing Angie Kerber. My plan was to attack the top seeds here, but I just can't decide with whom at the current prices. The bookmakers agree with me as they have Anisimova, Bertens, Kerber and Vondrousova all at 8.00 or 9.00 odds.

Predictions

Keys over Barty

Osaka over Williams

Sabalenka over Muchova

Pliskova over Bertens

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Osaka over Keys

Sabalenka over Pliskova

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Sabalenka over Osaka