WTA Adelaide - In-form Yastremska to go toe-to-toe with Barty

Australian Open qualifying did not treat us well and after the Kwiatkowski-Eubanks game lost by the hook, it was Brayden Schnur who let us down yesterday. I might have underestimated Coppejans' ability on return, but did not see the Belgian out-acing Schnur 8-2. In the end, it was Coppejans' consistency that won him the match as he only hit 10 unforced errors compared to Schnur's 25. We move on and get back to Adelaide one more time for today's WTA final between top seed Ashleigh Barty and in-form Dayana Yastremska.

En Fuego

It will be Yastremska's first Premier level final this Saturday and she more than deserves to be here. The 19-year-old Ukrainian is playing lights out tennis this week. In all of her three completed matches, she produced 30 or more winners. Neither of Babos, Kerber, Vekic and Sabalenka managed to take a set off the talented youngster. The courts in Adelaide are playing really quick which is for her benefit as well.

Local heroine Barty's start to the tournament was a bit trickier. The world #1 lost the first set against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in what was a very competitive match opening match for her. After losing to Jennifer Brady the week before in Brisbane, she really needed that win to enter the Australian Open on a good note. In the quarterfinal, Marketa Vondrousova didn't stand a chance against Barty, who then proceeded to beat Danielle Rose Collins in a nerve-wracking semifinal. The Australian needed a third set tiebreak to finally overcome the American.

No F#$%s Given

As you can see with her opponents, Barty more or less cruised past a diversly playing Vondrousova, but struggled against some bigger hitters in Pavlyuchenkova and Collins. Today, she will be confronted with hitting of another level. I'm not exaggerating when I rank the Ukrainian in the top 3 of aggressive players and she also won't back down in her first Premier final.

Yastremska won her first two finals on tour and she's that kind of player that doesn't get nervy in big matches. On the contrary, she will do anything to achieve her goals. In her finals win over Tomljanovic in Hua Hin for instance, she took medical timeouts down 2-5 and 4-5 in the third just to win it 7-6. That behavior annoyed a good part of the tennis community, but you won't make it to the top without that extra bit of killer instinct.

Barty Finals

Adelaide is a new addition to the WTA calendar as it replaced the event in Sydney. Ashleigh Barty also reached the final there in 2018 and 2019, but came up short against Angie Kerber and Petra Kvitova. Especially last year's final against Kvitova has been a nail-biter with a final score of 6-1 5-7 6-7. I'm expecting some of the same again tomorrow.

While I do think that Barty is rightly favored, I'm not so sure about the handicap. Bookmakers are putting Barty 3.5 games ahead of Yastremska and I just don't think that's fair. It might have something to do with their one and only previous meeting, which the Australian won 6-4 6-1 in Miami last year. Both court speed (Miami plays significantly slower than Adelaide) and Yastremska's form at the time were completely upside down though.

The Ukrainian's odds to win are currently at around 2.40 with the +3.5 handicap sitting at 1.80. I'm not sure if I like the youngster to go all the way, but I really like her to keep it close. Bringing in Sascha Bajin as her new coach has already shown off. Yastremska is hitting her spots much more consistently and also took another step forward with her movement. Ash Barty and the crowd will be as tough a task as you can imagine, but I'm going with Yastremska's form in this one.