Newcastle United host Chelsea at St James' Park on Saturday evening.
I believe there's some value to be found in backing Chelsea to win by a goal or two and also in opposing Newcastle to score.
Newcastle United
The Magpies have been outperforming the underlying numbers for the first part of the season, but it looks like luck is coming back to haunt them. Only picking up 4 points from the last 5 games, Steve Bruce and his team are just 5 points clear of the relegation zone and only 3 teams below them are picking up less points per game right now.
Statistics
No other team have created fewer shots than Newcastle so far in the Premier League this season, Newcastle creating on average 9.68 shots per game. Only Burnley and Bournemouth have created fewer shots on target than Newcastle so far in the Premier League this season, Newcastle creating on average 3.23 shots on target per game.
Only Aston Villa and Norwich have conceded more shots than Newcastle so far in the Premier League this season, Newcastle conceding on average 15.55 shots per game. No other team have conceded more shots on target than Newcastle so far in the Premier League this season, the Tyne and Wear club conceding on average 5.68 shots on target per game.
Form
Looking at the last 4 games, Newcastle have created on average 2.50 shots on target per game - one of the worst attacking numbers in the league right now and way below Newcastle's average numbers for the season so far. In the same time span, Newcastle have conceded on average 8.25 shots on target per game - the worst defensive numbers in the league right now.
Chelsea
The Blues will be defending a Champions League spot for the remainder of the season, Frank Lampard and his squad projecting well enough in points per game as well as in the shots data.
Statistics
Only Manchester City have created more shots than Chelsea so far in the Premier League this season, Chelsea creating on average 16.45 shots per game. Only Manchester City and Liverpool have created more shots on target than Chelsea so far in the Premier League this season, Chelsea creating on average 5.86 shots on target per game.
Only Manchester City have conceded fewer shots than Chelsea so far in the Premier League this season, Chelsea conceding on average 9.00 shots per game. Only Liverpool have conceded fewer shots on target than Chelsea so far in the Premier League this season, the London outfit conceding on average 3.09 shots on target per game.
Form
Looking at the last 4 games, Chelsea have created on average 5.00 shots on target per game - above the average in the league right now. During those very games Chelsea have conceded on average 3.00 shots on target per game - one of the best defensive numbers in the league right now.
Check out more Premier League stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Newcastle is one of the teams creating the fewest and conceding the most shots and shots on target in the Premier League.
Chelsea is one of the teams creating the most and conceding the fewest shots and shots on target in the Premier League.
The recent trends fortify these figures.
Betting Tip: Chelsea -1.25 (AH).
Stake at 2.5/10 units.
Betting Tip: Total Goals by Home Team: Under 0.5.
Stake at 2.5/10 units.
